Anyone Else Think It Wont Happen?

[JEBar]

The only goal EM has not been able to meet yet is the production deadline which is the end of this phase of the project.

This discussion just makes me glad that Paul Elio does in fact take his business guidance from his board of experienced investors and business people and not from the internet.

the fact is, EM has shown great skill in marketing, their tour alone is proof of that .... I do believe that if a do-over was possible that they would do several things differently .... I believe that they would be much less optimistic in setting dates for things like having a small fleet of test vehicles on the market, the time needed to develop a working motor, the time needed to secure a manufacturing facility, having sufficient funding in place, and so on .... I don't know that in such areas they could have done thing much differently because of factors that were/are out of their control .... where I believe they could have done a better job is in managing information releases about such things .... as has been widely stated, their handling of some projections and releases have created the impression of credibility issues .... the bottom line is they have created fertile ground on which some folks with no direct knowledge whatsoever can sit an hurl accusations .... none of us on the outside know if/when EM will go into production .... while folks have every right to make comments and projections, the fact is their arguments are based cherry picking info and twisting it based on emotion so as to fit their agenda

 

[Rickb]

It seems the amount of funding Elio needs for production is $240 Million. Nobody knows how much they actually have in the bank. I speculate not much since they can't afford to start building the EP5's.

My opinion regarding EM's ability to manage finances is that they have staff and/or partner expertise to do it. They just haven't had any liquid cash or assests to manage. They never did have the funding they needed, but only funding plans. It's possible that can change overnight, but the funding clock is ticking to meet the mid 2016 production goal.

I don't feel the Caddo Parrish lawsuit caused the last delay. Elio said on track to 2015 production so many times on Facebook I believed it, right up until minutes before the on track to 2016 production announcement without the slightest electronic hiccup in the new EM Facebook script.

Mel Brooks closed his HBO Comedy Special last night with a song he wrote years ago titled:
"Hope for the Best, Expect the Worst". I may have smiled, but it wasn't laugh out loud funny.

Thankfully, the Hope for the Best lyric is very positive. I Hope for the Best!

 

[John Painter]

All very good points G1, but the production deadline is what worries most of us. If E!io fails to meet the six month extension, the fines for not providing the 1500 jobs he contractually promised the Parrish, will probably dash all hopes of ever making it to production. Not to mention, lose him control of the plant. We all hope the equipment sells, and he also gets the loan. Has anyone mentioned how much the total of those fines will be? I'm still hoping everything works out, but I can see where the lack of information, would lead to speculation. It would be nice to hear any information about engine, or the status of the vehicle we have all been waiting to see. Anything besides the P4 we have all seen. Good thing we have you to keep things positive on this forum. Keep up the good work.

You know going into production isn't going to eliminate risk, it will just shift the risk. A friend of mine from High School still has his dad's Delorian he wrapped around a tree (it has been repaired) 30 something years ago - that car lasted a lot longer than the company.

 

[John Painter]

It seems the amount of funding Elio needs for production is $240 Million. Nobody knows how much they actually have in the bank. I speculate not much since they can't afford to start building the EP5's.!

It's around $175 million they need, not $240.

 

[Rickb]

It's around $175 million they need, not $240.

$175 Million according to Elio Motors? My point was that they need funding to production, nobody really knows how much they have on hand or how much they really need. I could be wrong. People are throwing around numbers like they know, and or knew 3 weeks ago.

It's been noted in the past that they needed $240 total had about $60, but I don't think they currently have any cash balance other than to cover daily operations. Whatever the magical amount is needs to materialize soon to get the prototype builds at least started. That would put me at a better comfort level.

 

[WilliamH]

I ferget how many times we've said it but what you just said is spot on!

The ATVM loan, by terms, must be used to fund ongoing operations.

I understand that to mean that Elio has to be making Elios in order to get the ATVM funding.

.........."The ATVM loan program provides direct loans to automotive or component manufacturers for reequipping, expanding, or establishing manufacturing facilities in the United States that produce fuel-efficient advanced technology vehicles or qualifying components"........
An extract from http://energy.gov/lpo/advanced-technology-vehicles-manufacturing-atvm-loan-program .
I think you may be incorrect in your understanding, but I included a link to "Energy.gov Loan program office" for your reference.

 

[John Painter]

I ferget how many times we've said it but what you just said is spot on!

The ATVM loan, by terms, must be used to fund ongoing operations.

I understand that to mean that Elio has to be making Elios in order to get the ATVM funding.

Elio is eligible for the ATVM loan as is, that is known. Paul Elio has confirmed they are in the "due diligence" round (the second of three rounds) and indicated they are doing well but also has stated he is not at liberty to say why he says that, that is also known. Beyond this, until Elio announces they've got it or not, it's mind numbing, heart wrenching speculation.

 

[tonyspumoni]

I have read both the ATVM solicitation, which is how DoE interpreted the funding mandate, and the DoE annual budget request that established the framework rules. My interpretation is that in funding the loan, what gets funded automatically becomes a collateral instrument, e.g. they cannot merely take the ATVM loan bucks, pay off the original investors, declare insolvency, and bolt. I'll dig out the verbage, which we can haggle about, but it is very likely that DoE will have thoroughly considered (and provided for) the exact possibility that they get fleeced once the check gets cashed. DoE is trying to give those they fund some flexibility but this is far from a blank check.

 

[outsydthebox]

I have read both the ATVM solicitation, which is how DoE interpreted the funding mandate, and the DoE annual budget request that established the framework rules. My interpretation is that in funding the loan, what gets funded automatically becomes a collateral instrument, e.g. they cannot merely take the ATVM loan bucks, pay off the original investors, declare insolvency, and bolt. I'll dig out the verbage, which we can haggle about, but it is very likely that DoE will have thoroughly considered (and provided for) the exact possibility that they get fleeced once the check gets cashed. DoE is trying to give those they fund some flexibility but this is far from a blank check.

Well said.
This world continues to get smaller and smaller. I think that, if $185M were stolen from the Gov't, they would hound you to the ends of the earth!

 

[WilliamH]

I have read both the ATVM solicitation, which is how DoE interpreted the funding mandate, and the DoE annual budget request that established the framework rules. My interpretation is that in funding the loan, what gets funded automatically becomes a collateral instrument, e.g. they cannot merely take the ATVM loan bucks, pay off the original investors, declare insolvency, and bolt. I'll dig out the verbage, which we can haggle about, but it is very likely that DoE will have thoroughly considered (and provided for) the exact possibility that they get fleeced once the check gets cashed. DoE is trying to give those they fund some flexibility but this is far from a blank check.

Tony, Why not just provide the appropriate URLs so that we can read the full text?
Also include notes on what you think is important. That way we can all look it up and decide for our selves.
After once spending 3-1/2 years in litigation I have learned that it is best to read everything and not trust anyone.
Not even your own attorneys who are admitted to practice before SCOTUS.