5/16/2014 Production Update From Paul Elio

[Debbie Bruce]

Well, I'm in it for the 'long haul'...... they already have my $1,000 (#925)..... but my 'initial plan', of starting at $100 All-In and increasing my level with each Prototype, and final upgrade (when they started to hire plant workers), NOW sounds more 'reasonable'. Their 'reasons' for the DELAYS, just don't pass the 'smell test', and they have not demonstrated the ability to produce the number of "E" prototypes ("18 to 26 vehicles") over the past two years. In fact, they have already PROMISED (and NOT delivered).......
--- "Elio Motors:-- Ray. We will have 18 Prototypes in 3 -4 months.
Like · 2 · August 10, 2013 at 1:11pm"...... FIVE months later...... ONE P4 #1.--- and still NO P5 with the IAV engine/drivetrain!

3 years later they are still saying 18 months to go. It's a great idea , would love to get mine but when they can't come up with enough money to build 18 to 26. they have ran out of deposits from reservations to fund any forward development.

 

[Debbie Bruce]

I take any statement about the future as subject to change. I'm not a religious person, but there's a line in Matthew that I kind of agree with:



I try not to make promises about the future and try to take any one else's statements about it as merely estimations.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

Maybe if Elio would tell the truth, admit they are in trouble and explain what they need people would buck up. A simple statement saying unless they get more reservations whith large deposits they can't move forward, Instead they show up at a motel parking lot weekly to get a 100 more reservations counting on 25 to be 1000 dollars to cover expenses. A few monhs ago they had their big showing at a Motel 6.

 

[fred bott]

I am an avid supporter of the Elio and am anxious to get mine. Hopefully, I'll live long enough and stay healthy enough to be able to enjoy it. Sure don't want to have to park it outside of the convalescent home.

...
JIM: I'm sure it will look nice with the flowers planted in it at your old folks home.
I am #775 and at 75 yrs old I am wondering just HOW will my CASKET fit in/on the elio.
Suppose they can bury my Elio with me ?
OH WAIT, I am to be cremated, SO we can JUST burn the sucker !

 

[ST13Fred]

Paul Elio is not a liar or trying to scam people in this venture.

I've said it all along, its' the politics of money. The feet dragging in getting into production is (1) govt (2) lawyers; the reason for investor pessimism. Elio is actually a win, win at any level, w/no real downside.
Mark your calenders: Nov 2014. Nov 2016. Our govt does not want $2 gas; they want $6 gas. Its' called the war on oil/gas. Our govt hates Elio and is (Elio) going nowhere until the change in politics.
The pendulum is on the downswing now, toward center. Again, mark your calenders. If the change in DC does not happen in the next 2 voting cycles; I'm glad my $1K was refundable, (I'm hoping).

 

[Lil4X]

Sure, another delay in the projected delivery of the first production article is disappointing, but we have to understand some of the realities of bringing a new concept into full production. I think it's significant that as the design is solidified and resources can now be spent on developing the production process that reality is setting in. We are just beginning to see the scope of the transition from prototype to full production, and given the targeted numbers, it's going to be huge. There is a big difference between cobbling up a prototype in a couple of months and producing 250 finished production units every day. I don't possess any inside information, but based on a little experience in product development, I'd say Elio is entering a whole new business phase - one that very few fledgling automakers ever reach.

About 10% of the design process actually goes into the product, the rest of the effort goes to developing the production system that will create it. That's the reality that I'm sure the Elio team is facing now - and it's not an easy process to gauge. We are talking about locating and installing sub-assemblers in an unused plant, assuring that all can produce their sub-products that not only fit the application, but the vehicle and the production schedule. If your transmission builder is two hours behind, with a JIT delivery system, your production line slows and waits for it to catch up. Your line is only as fast as its slowest contributor.

Orchestrating this process is a real headache, but thankfully the Elio team has members on board with direct experience in this challenge. There is a vast difference between building a few vehicles in a neighborhood garage and rolling a couple hundred out the door and onto carriers every day. THAT'S tough! Beyond the challenge of logistics, lie hiring and training workers, establishing inspection and QC standards, and doing all of the legal work to head off what we can expect to be a legal and political challenge from other automakers who see the Elio concept as a threat. You didn't think they would take the loss of a large percentage of their commuter market lying down, did you? For reference, go rent a copy of "Tucker: The Man and His Dream". There are some serious caveats here.


As one of my old bosses once said: "If this were and easy business to be in, everybody'd be in it".

 

[pj rogers]

Maybe this delay will be a good thing because it gives EM time to rethink what they are doing.
I mean if you really look at the mess we have now, I can't see how they can produce elios and 60 stores and 250,00 a day to make enough to cover the costs of all this and employees.
If i was Paul Elio and the board, here is what i would do.!
Make the P5 with the IAV motor and a AMT transmission only. Since 90 % or more of the vehicles on the road are automatics, this should be an easy thing to do and simplify assembly. Add cruise at the factory also, and that would make a Elio with automatic, a/c, tinted glass and cruise the only FACTORY vehicle. Take the four most popular colors and for the first year do those colors only. What ever MPG and crash rating happens, that is it and we work on the next years model. Price the 2016 elio 55* at say $8295 and make thousands of them.
In 9-10 months after the money starts rolling in from the generic sale elios, I would add more colors in say 6 months. Might even widen the rerar by 18" and put a bench seat there for two SMALL
Here is my idea for the near future 2017 "performance elio called the scorpion". Increase the horse power to at least 90. More aggressive fenders, wheels and tires, and a h/d suspension, add a dual clutch automatic and you have rocket ship on 3 wheels..try to keep it under 10 grand, but at $10,995 it would sell like crazy.

 

[Inigo93]

Sure, another delay in the projected delivery of the first production article is disappointing, but we have to understand some of the realities of bringing a new concept into full production.

That there is a delay isn't what I find concerning. What I find concerning is the "every 3 months the schedule slides 12 weeks" aspect, AKA the "we're 18 months away from production, which is where we were 18 months ago" aspect. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Paul Elio is a crook. I just think he's doomed (but I hope I'm wrong).

As an engineer I've seen a lot of projects get delayed. If you find yourself in an "every month the schedule slides a week" scenario? Hey, that's not good, obviously, but it's survivable. Alternatively, I've never seen a project survive the "every month the schedule slides four weeks" scenario.... And it seems to me that's where the Elio is.

 

[Debbie Bruce]

That there is a delay isn't what I find concerning. What I find concerning is the "every 3 months the schedule slides 12 weeks" aspect, AKA the "we're 18 months away from production, which is where we were 18 months ago" aspect. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Paul Elio is a crook. I just think he's doomed (but I hope I'm wrong).

As an engineer I've seen a lot of projects get delayed. If you find yourself in an "every month the schedule slides a week" scenario? Hey, that's not good, obviously, but it's survivable. Alternatively, I've never seen a project survive the "every month the schedule slides four weeks" scenario.... And it seems to me that's where the Elio is.

There was the almost embarrassing Elio prototype that appeared on the streets of New York City last summer - less than a year before production of the real deal was expected to start. The car was akin to a "back yard project" sporting an engine borrowed from a Geo Metro and missing promised items such as power windows and air conditioning. The New York Times’ Jim Motavalii and Benjamin Preston gave it a tough review.
Shortly after, blogger Jo Borras released a damning analysis of Elio Motors' financial forecast, in which he criticized their plan of jumping from zero sales in 2013 to 63,000+ vehicles sold in 2014. He wrote:
“68,333 units is 2210 more units than Mini sold in 2012, despite a strong, experienced dealer group, a compelling ad presence, and the Mini being a generally good looking, practical car...”

 

[KenK]

Exactly, Debbie Bruce. Exactly.

I have already made my peace with the loss of $1K. It was worth it as an investment in both that it could have become a 150% return and also I wanted to show the auto market that there are people who want something different. Something small, inexpensive, fun, and exotic. So far, it appears that only 4 or 5 thousand people feel this strongly. Far short of 60K.

Elio is still the one best hope for the US market and I will continue to do what little I can to push it along. If Carver/Persu were still viable, they would have more of my energies.

 

[jetpack54]

All the lies told by Elio to get deposits does not bother you?

I just have to get in and straighten you thoughts a bit because your brain is rusting away with hatred! "all the lies"??? Let me pick on your brain and see if you're smart enough to analyze this....one BIG name they announced as partners in this project is PEP BOYS, a huge company. Now do you think Paul Elio will make this up just to get more interest and deposits?? Do you know that Pep Boys can sue EM for using their name or any other names Paul Elio mentioned in this project if it isn't true??? You never read any news about any detraction from Pep Boys have you??? Wise up mama because you ain't convincing anybody here! Sure it's upsetting to hear another delay but what I believe is Paul Elio is not going anywhere...he is too visible right now to just bail out with our money! Give him a chance to prove himself...heck give him the whole of next year (2015) then cry foul all you want if it gets push back to 2016. Here's another one for you, why will they even bother working to change the laws on motorcycle helmets for the ELIO??? They don't have to do that if all they want is to rake the money and run later, right? Anybody that still think this is an elaborate hoax is an idiot! By the way, we're still waiting for your rich uncle M to show us some pics of that dump with the red Elio in the background, ok?