Jim G
Elio Enthusiast
One way or the other, yes. But 'our' autocycles to us while we're alive? I certainly hope so. And business case-wise, they probably could.
The absolute minimum progress now has 100 Elios delivered to fleet customers by early 2017.
So starting from that point, and this is totally hypothetical on my part;
After the 100 are delivered EM could choose to continue to build low volume lots of Elios for a price higher than 6800. Who would buy them? Fleet sales and later, given as an option, us.
Under that scenario, Em could up production 10% or 20% for each lot build just based on sales profits alone. But with more stock sales, that could grow faster. Lets say they get 12mil more in stock which has been held back up to now. That enables a lot build at 2400 if there were no tooling investment. But there will be new tooling involved. So lets say they can produce 200 in 60days (5mil into some tooling) and reaching 1000(total) in 90days , then 1000 more in the following 30days. That would have reached a 50/unit/day rate.
Then 10% more each lot order, improving tooling and speed as they go, say every 30 days on the average. At that rate of acceleration they are doubling production every 6 months. Presumably the price goes down towards the $7300, then the $6800 level as volumes increase.
In that progression, 12 months sees 25,000 delivered, and at 18 months all 50,000 delivered. 1st year rate 25,000/yr(25k delivered), Y2-60,000/yr(85k delivered in total), Y3-220,000/yr(305k delivered total)
However, in this process, early on, they would have qualified for the ATVM loan, could have issued more stock, obtained a 'bridge loan' or sold some of that surplus equipment. Any of that would allow them to progress into full production with-in 3-5 months from a running start.
I don't know what Elio has up their sleeves, but they ain't go'in to just sit on this. Funding the business cycle, that always been the key.
ELIO has a very seasoned Board of Directors. I have every confidence that they are exploring multiple financing options.
At this juncture, any financing deal done with VC would be negotiated from a position of weakness; accordingly, I don't see that occurring.
What I DO think is far more likely is for any financing deal to await the results of the testing of the 100 pre-production vehicles by third party fleet purchasers under real life conditions. If that goes well, I personally don't think financing will prove to be much of a problem.