• Welcome to Elio Owners! Join today, registration is easy!

    You can register using your Google, Facebook, or Twitter account, just click here.

10/15/2014 - Tech Talk - Engine Series: Part 1

Kuda

Kuda

Elio Addict
Joined
Feb 24, 2014
Messages
2,104
Reaction score
4,750
Location
NC
tonyspumoni said:
Snipped: Business leaders often employ the strategy of covering failure by lauding success. I worry that Elio Motors might be kicking off three weeks of positive views on engine design and trial development to mask bad news regarding funding.
Click to expand...

T,
Interesting points. I know I won't lessen your funding concerns other than to say Paul Elio
has been at this since 2008 & has at least 5 mil of his own in it getting this off the ground.
I don't think the good monies after bad applies here & I think the backing is solid provided
the Elio team performs. Evidenced by: The the work @ the plant, selling off the unneeded
equipment, strong backing for the 'Cafe Credit' scenario & 35K res. without any production.
looks like they are 'performing' just fine, according to a smart plan & a lot of hard work from
all concerned. I fully expect Elio to be hiring by years end or within the first Qtr. of '15 latest, depending on testing results in Nov.........
cooking.jpg
 
Last edited:
T

tonyspumoni

Elio Addict
Joined
Sep 27, 2014
Messages
355
Reaction score
1,307
Location
San Diego
K-

Don't get me wrong - I'm a lover not a hater - and I don't doubt this will go. My only doubt is timing. I have done a fair bit of reading about the pre-WW II industrialization after 1939 when war seemed imminent. Efforts to re-arm, though not nearly of the scale Elio Motors will face, lingered well into 1942, when ships, planes, and other weapons began to reach troops and sailors.

So where is Elio Motors now? No pre-production prototype. Engine looking good but incomplete so tool and die cannot yet be set. No production employees. No production implementation management team. No ramped production supply train. No distribution pipeline. No computer systems set up with production parts and design plans for just-in-time delivery of parts. In short - there are a zillion operational details to iron out, all of which will have to go just right in order for this to go.

This is not to say that they cannot get this done, but the time is very short to get this implemented, tested to six sigmas, and production ready by summer's end next.
 
Kuda

Kuda

Elio Addict
Joined
Feb 24, 2014
Messages
2,104
Reaction score
4,750
Location
NC
tonyspumoni said:
This is not to say that they cannot get this done, but the time is very short to get this implemented, tested to six sigmas, and production ready by summer's end next.
Click to expand...

These points are right on & you obviously have production/management experience.
The Elio folks, Paul in particular, do as well. [ http://elioowners.com/threads/tech-talk-archive.1128/#post-18613]
If Gino Raffin, Vice President of Manufacturing and Product Launch can't launch the Elio, nobody can.
We aren't privy to behind the scenes planning/implementation (unfortunately) I wish we were. I'm just going by facts on the ground & trying not to be too much of a Pollyanna, about it. It's still a crap shoot, but the odds are getting stronger that they'll pull it off................
PS: Don't forget the Elio is a "Lego.tinker toy " concept. Outside of the IAV motor
the mission critical components have all been R&D'd, vetted, tested, & used in the
real word, & the suppliers that make the parts (trannies too) are still in business,
so they must be doing something right.
[Broken External Image]
 
Last edited:
S

Snick

Elio Addict
Joined
Apr 18, 2014
Messages
445
Reaction score
671
tonyspumoni said:
K-

Don't get me wrong - I'm a lover not a hater - and I don't doubt this will go. My only doubt is timing. I have done a fair bit of reading about the pre-WW II industrialization after 1939 when war seemed imminent. Efforts to re-arm, though not nearly of the scale Elio Motors will face, lingered well into 1942, when ships, planes, and other weapons began to reach troops and sailors.

So where is Elio Motors now? No pre-production prototype. Engine looking good but incomplete so tool and die cannot yet be set. No production employees. No production implementation management team. No ramped production supply train. No distribution pipeline. No computer systems set up with production parts and design plans for just-in-time delivery of parts. In short - there are a zillion operational details to iron out, all of which will have to go just right in order for this to go.

This is not to say that they cannot get this done, but the time is very short to get this implemented, tested to six sigmas, and production ready by summer's end next.
Click to expand...


How dare you point this reality out? I was almost run out of town for mentioning the same. If you were to put all the necessary must-haves into a Gantt timeline, it would run to about 14,000 items across 120 job roles and take 2.5 years under good circumstances.

Small point of contention though: there's no way in hell EM is going to test all or even most parts to six sigma. It isn't remotely realistic or even all that preferable. Best balance of profitability is nearer to 3.5-4 Sx levels, or Ppk's in the ballpark of 1.2-2.5 depending on criticality level.

"Six sigma" means you have 99.9999% passing parts, or fallout rates measured in 1/million(s). Automotive and non-military, non bottomless pits of money operations have to live with fallout rates in the thousands or tens of thousands range.


"Six sigma" sounds great and everyone likes to think they know how to manage that. In reality, it's a pipe dream for modern production. Only military-funded ventures and hyper-mission-critical aerospace can hope to keep fallout rates at six Sx levels. The rest of us have to live in reality land where money is not from a bottomless pit, lol.
 
T

tonyspumoni

Elio Addict
Joined
Sep 27, 2014
Messages
355
Reaction score
1,307
Location
San Diego
Wasn't aware six sigmas was not the norm in automotive manufacturing but good to get corrected. We hear it a lot in my business, though I am far from an expert at the manufacturing end of it and am in R&D myself. Yikes. Gantt charts are the bane of all existence - never thought I see that one written here, but I agree totally and your timing sounds much more reasonable to me.

As for six sigmas, it is an esoteric topic but you've piqued my curiosity. I guess if QA/QC catches parts that fail before they go into the vehicle fails in the thousands would be fine. But if QA/QC does not catch parts and if the failure of any one part in, say, a motor of 500 parts dooms the whole, then the probability of engine failure would be something like 1 in 2 for a motor with 500 parts and a 1/1000 chance of any one part failing. In other words, in stats, p(A or B) = p(A)+p(B), so 1/1000 + 1/1000 + ..... n number of parts. I get the feeling you probably know this. Just a question - not a dig - I'm genuinely curious.

As for getting run out of town, that's fine. I'm shouldered up against the Pacific so as long as I run west and not east they can only run me about 4 miles. I guess I'd just have to surf and go all ninja quiet on the site til Elio Motors got all sorted out and reduced to practice.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom