Reservations: 65341 As Of 6/20/2017

[Buckeyejake]

I'm going to try to get the basic model that was offered for $6,800. That concept sold me. I'm kinda of a purist. # 1788 will be at car shows promoting this new revolutionary concept in transportation.

Go Elio !

 

[AriLea]

While researching this data, I ran across some quotes that are really funny, in hindsight:

August 28th, 2014, just as the rapid upswing was hitting it's peak before leveling out:
http://elioowners.com/threads/reservations-55-021-as-of-jun-27-2016.539/page-66#post-40424
"By the end of Dec. 2014, we should be at or near 59,248 reservations."

This is from a few days later. Apparently there was a theory that there was a finite number of reservations available.
http://elioowners.com/threads/reservations-55-021-as-of-jun-27-2016.539/page-69#post-41021
"...at this rate I'm betting the reservations will be gone before Christmas."

I noticed that, the times that the reservation increases 'corrected' themselves to more moderate rates were just after 'production delay' announcements, and other disappointments. The prior 'faster' rates were when production was expected nearing 6 months, more or less and after milestone successes. But the production schedule and confidence was the higher effect.

Emotionally at this point, it's a little hard to believe in such fast rates reoccurring, but if we judge by the affect of historical evens, rates as fast or faster than the mid-2014 experience are certainly indicated. I would expect this when confidence with-in 6months and 3months rises.
The fastest rate on the chart would appear in excess of 50k per month. 3 months of that would challenge the 240k promised production rate.

The shocking thought is possibly reaching a rate as fast as the Tesla at 300k/week. I'm sure EM is willing to reserve out the entire year, if not two.

 

[Sethodine]

I can't remember which forward looking document it was (maybe the quarterly earnings report?) but I remember EM saying that they expected/hoped that reservations would become scarce as production got closer. "Scarcity" implies to me that they will cap it somewhere; I would guess 1 production year's worth.

They did say that non-reservationists wouldn't be able to order an Elio until the second year of production, so it makes sense to fill out the first year with reservations, then sell Elios from the storefronts on a first-come, first-serve basis for year 2 and beyond.

It shouldn't take them more than a year to get the marshalling centers and some of the storefronts up, right?

 

[Buckeyejake]

If things are moving correctly a year's time is adequate to get those facilities up and running.

 

[AriLea]

I can't remember which forward looking document it was (maybe the quarterly earnings report?) but I remember EM saying that they expected/hoped that reservations would become scarce as production got closer. "Scarcity" implies to me that they will cap it somewhere; I would guess 1 production year's worth.

They did say that non-reservationists wouldn't be able to order an Elio until the second year of production, so it makes sense to fill out the first year with reservations, then sell Elios from the storefronts on a first-come, first-serve basis for year 2 and beyond.

It shouldn't take them more than a year to get the marshalling centers and some of the storefronts up, right?

And it's important to realize, Em is not limited to reservations before production start, they can continue the collection of reservations as production is actually in delivery. I think what they will do is around 240k, stop promising this is a year 1 reservation, and then continue signing people up. Just my opinion.

I can't imagine what the affect of rising gas prices would have on this. The EU controversy probably has put that off a bit. The low price to buy and operate has become the go-to selling point for now.

 

[AriLea]

BTW, IMHO, one other reason that OPEC has been able to keep pricing down, other than sticking it to ISIS, ... they have learned 'Fracking' and revitalized a large number of 'dead' wells..

 

[Sethodine]

Well, fracking is a relatively expensive process. From what I understand, OPEC decided not to cut production specifically to keep prices lower than what is profitable for fracking, thus cutting a chunk out of American oil production. OPEC used to be profitable by being a price-controlling sole supplier, but American fracking competition means their future profits will have to come from undercutting the competition.

OPEC is becoming the Wal-Mart of oil.

 

[wizard of ahs]

I can't remember which forward looking document it was (maybe the quarterly earnings report?) but I remember EM saying that they expected/hoped that reservations would become scarce as production got closer. "Scarcity" implies to me that they will cap it somewhere; I would guess 1 production year's worth.

They did say that non-reservationists wouldn't be able to order an Elio until the second year of production, so it makes sense to fill out the first year with reservations, then sell Elios from the storefronts on a first-come, first-serve basis for year 2 and beyond.

It shouldn't take them more than a year to get the marshalling centers and some of the storefronts up, right?

I do believe you are correct.........I read that "somewhere"

 

[Sailor Dog]

Expressed exactly my unstated expectation but not 'realistic' quotations added sarcastically, thanks! 850,000 reservations or more is a definite alternative possibility if other synergies are created by people who are passionate about Elio and 'take it to all the auto shows', multiple offers to early reservations, guerrilla marketing at its finest! There are many unexpected sources of promotion and it seems to be increasing exponentially!

 

[Jambe]

Number of current reservations: 55,292 as of Jul 5, 2016 - 55,021 = 271/8 = 33.9/day.