Invitation Only Event La Area

[Indiana Dave]

Thanks to all that attended for the person to person updates!

It is appreciated.

 

[WilliamH]

Eric's view of future demand --

My guess is demand will exceed 250K per year within 3 years of startup. It may rise to three or four hundred thou in 5 years, depending on the price of gas. Fleet sales will account for a good portion of that as municipalities see that the car really does work and really is cheap to buy and maintain. Exports will be a big part of the business within 5 years, and most of the business within 10 years -- though the relatively large family sizes elsewhere in the world may slow that down.

(I I can just see an Elio with roof rack and trailer hitch with a family of 8 clinging to it in some place like Cambodia. If you've ever seen 5 on a motor scooter, I guess the elio would be a huge step up)

If we don't see the US GSA make at least 30% of the bureaucratic car fleet Elios we probably need to make serious reductions in Washington, DC bureaucracy.

 

[Thomas Maule]

If we don't see the US GSA make at least 30% of the bureaucratic car fleet Elios we probably need to make serious reductions in Washington, DC bureaucracy.

I like this idea. An Elio for government employees instead of whatever brand new Sedan they choose now... What more do most of them need?

 

[Rickb]

I'm hoping the marshaling centers are contracted with an established World Wide Company like Enterprise which could lead to a fast, efficient, and economical startup partner for the Elio Store rollout across the USA and abroad.

 

[Jeff Porter]

I attended the Invitation Only Event in the LA Area and had a good time. I wore a name tag I had made showing my avatar picture with my name and “elioowners.com” on it. I did not see any other elioowners tags. My tag was noticed by Bliokart and Robert7841. All three of us met, talked, and had a good time.

Below is what I learned.

When changing the rear tire, of course the lug nuts will be on one side. The black panel on that side will be hinged to permit access to the wheel.

The P5 color may not be blue. It may be some other color as determined by the reservationists. This is from the workers who said they hoped it would not be black since black shows dirt very much. (Remember they are the ones responsible for keeping it sparkling clean for the tours.)

The P5 will have two hood latches. The CAD drawing simply left them off.

Because of 506(c), they have almost half of the development money. Money is still continuing to come in.

I told Paul Elio there is a story of Elio Motors losing funding because they were late to secure a manufacturing site due to a lawsuit initiated by a Caddo Parish commissioner. I asked him if this was true. He indicated most of the story is not true but did not go into details and I did not press him of the subject. Bliokart may remember more than I. He has a good memory.

The new funding program, crowd funding, will be announced June 19.

The P5's engine will have variable valve timing.

Optional items may be installed at the plant. Example: If 9 people want cloth seats and 1 wants leather. Cloth seats will be installed at the plant and one leather seat will swapped at the marshaling center. If 9 people want leather seats and 1 wants cloth, then leather seats will be installed at the plant and one cloth seat will be swapped at the marshaling center.

For the first 45 days, enough people to staff two shifts will be working together on one shift. They will start at 70% of capacity and increase to 100% capacity by end of the 45 day period. For the next 45 days, these two groups of people will split up and operate two shifts. Once again they will start at 70% and increase to 100% by the end of that 45 day period. At day 90, they are expecting to be at 1000 per day (100%) which is a yearly rate of 250,000 per year, and remain at that rate. They are expecting to produce essentially 250,000 vehicles during their first 12 months.

The satellite marshaling centers around the country are to be handled by a contracting company. Paul Elio refrained from naming it, saying it is on the stock exchange. The first marshaling center will be at the plant, with one of its purposes to determine how marshaling centers should be built and operated.

My impression about Paul Elio is: 1. He is very smart. 2. He works hard. 3. He thinks big.

I wish Zelio was still here. She was such a classy lady.

Thanks for all the information! Very much appreciated.

 

[WilliamH]

I have some reservations in outsourcing the marshaling centers ( in essence a part of the manufacturing process) to an outside company.

 

[Jeff Porter]

Those optimistic projections for 250k per year always unsettled me. I hope there is a viable plan 'B' where 50k cars per year will make the company viable until export markets open up and Elio just never mentions it because it wouldn't be good for marketing. I just don't see that demand in USA for 250k per year.

I'm with you on this, i.e. 250k for the first year seems unsettling and unlikely. Even IF demand is there, I just see there being too many chances for many-less-than-expected being produced for a given week or month, due to circumstances beyond Elio's control.

We've had many versions of a report of their plans for ramp-up for production. Anyway, this information is good to hear, in that they have a goal.

"For the first 45 days, enough people to staff two shifts will be working together on one shift. They will start at 70% of capacity and increase to 100% capacity by end of the 45 day period. For the next 45 days, these two groups of people will split up and operate two shifts. Once again they will start at 70% and increase to 100% by the end of that 45 day period. At day 90, they are expecting to be at 1000 per day (100%) which is a yearly rate of 250,000 per year, and remain at that rate. They are expecting to produce essentially 250,000 vehicles during their first 12 months."

For the 45-day period, is that 45 calendar days, or 45 work days? I think we all assume it's 45 calendar days. I know Ty has the experience and mindset that it is doable, to be producing 500 per day at the end of 6.5 weeks, and then 1000 by end of 3 months. Correct, Ty? Just because I have trouble wrapping my brain around it, doesn't mean it can't happen.

 

[JNR]

Eric's view of future demand --

My guess is demand will exceed 250K per year within 3 years of startup. It may rise to three or four hundred thou in 5 years, depending on the price of gas. Fleet sales will account for a good portion of that as municipalities see that the car really does work and really is cheap to buy and maintain. Exports will be a big part of the business within 5 years, and most of the business within 10 years -- though the relatively large family sizes elsewhere in the world may slow that down.

(I I can just see an Elio with roof rack and trailer hitch with a family of 8 clinging to it in some place like Cambodia. If you've ever seen 5 on a motor scooter, I guess the elio would be a huge step up)

My hope is everyone would be as logical as all of us Elio fans on this site and these could sell half a million a year in the US alone (which would be about 3% of the market in volume sold). It also seems logical that fleet sales will be a huge market for Elio. However, I have read auto magazines for decades, and frequently I have seen Automotive companies project sales figures for their upcoming models, and they are almost always overly optimistic. I just pray that Elio won't go under if it takes 2 or even 5 years to sell his first 250k vehicles. I do see these selling plenty more overseas than here, but what if breaking into those markets doesn't go so smooth to start?

As Elio Amazed noted, he is confident Elio has many contingency plans, and I am hopeful for that. Past experience with the multiple delays seems to indicate Elio didn't have contingency plans other than to keep waiting and delaying for the production money. If I had to guess he has learned his lesson or the tide has turned, but only time will tell.

 

[Ekh]

I'm hoping the marshaling centers are contracted with an established World Wide Company like Enterprise which could lead to a fast, efficient, and economical startup partner for the Elio Store rollout across the USA and abroad.

Now THAT is an idea for EM to consider! Good one!

 

[Jake]

I attended the Invitation Only Event in the LA Area and had a good time. I wore a name tag I had made showing my avatar picture with my name and “elioowners.com” on it. I did not see any other elioowners tags. My tag was noticed by Bliokart and Robert7841. All three of us met, talked, and had a good time.

Below is what I learned.

When changing the rear tire, of course the lug nuts will be on one side. The black panel on that side will be hinged to permit access to the wheel.

The P5 color may not be blue. It may be some other color as determined by the reservationists. This is from the workers who said they hoped it would not be black since black shows dirt very much. (Remember they are the ones responsible for keeping it sparkling clean for the tours.)

The P5 will have two hood latches. The CAD drawing simply left them off.

Because of 506(c), they have almost half of the development money. Money is still continuing to come in.

I told Paul Elio there is a story of Elio Motors losing funding because they were late to secure a manufacturing site due to a lawsuit initiated by a Caddo Parish commissioner. I asked him if this was true. He indicated most of the story is not true but did not go into details and I did not press him of the subject. Bliokart may remember more than I. He has a good memory.

The new funding program, crowd funding, will be announced June 19.

The P5's engine will have variable valve timing.

Optional items may be installed at the plant. Example: If 9 people want cloth seats and 1 wants leather. Cloth seats will be installed at the plant and one leather seat will swapped at the marshaling center. If 9 people want leather seats and 1 wants cloth, then leather seats will be installed at the plant and one cloth seat will be swapped at the marshaling center.

For the first 45 days, enough people to staff two shifts will be working together on one shift. They will start at 70% of capacity and increase to 100% capacity by end of the 45 day period. For the next 45 days, these two groups of people will split up and operate two shifts. Once again they will start at 70% and increase to 100% by the end of that 45 day period. At day 90, they are expecting to be at 1000 per day (100%) which is a yearly rate of 250,000 per year, and remain at that rate. They are expecting to produce essentially 250,000 vehicles during their first 12 months.

The satellite marshaling centers around the country are to be handled by a contracting company. Paul Elio refrained from naming it, saying it is on the stock exchange. The first marshaling center will be at the plant, with one of its purposes to determine how marshaling centers should be built and operated.

My impression about Paul Elio is: 1. He is very smart. 2. He works hard. 3. He thinks big.

I wish Zelio was still here. She was such a classy lady.

I don't understand how they can start at 70% capacity. I hope thats true as mine will be built on day 7 and by the end of week 2 there will be 7000 built.
I think its more reasonable to GUESS that the first month will be much slower & slowly ramp up. Thanks for the info Mr Pistonboy