I don't know the answer to the OP's question, but if I had to make an educated guess. I would say that since the original engine came from a Geo Metro, and the 1995 Metro 3cyl manual engine got 37 City, 44 Highway, and we've all heard Mr. Elio say (paraphrasing) "...at highway speeds half the power is going to pushing air, Elio is half the width, so twice the MPG" So, using the original engine specs and ignoring power to weight ratios, 1/2 the size of the original car size would give us an estimated 74 city, 88 highway. So it's pretty easy to gauge where the number might have come from. Factor in how much less air the Elio pushes vs the '95 metro, calculate weight differences, and knowing the original engine specs/economy you can extrapolate an estimated MPG range for the prototype.
Again, not 100%, but that's how I would do it during original concept/design and bench-marking.
Some things I noticed while looking at the P4 that could be done to increase MPG. The fenders are fairly blunt, whereas not a wall , they are not as streamlined as they could be. A simple center-line ridge, reducing the head wind facing surface will decrease wind resistance and increase slipperiness. Also, simply reducing the width of the rear tire will reduces ground friction on the drag wheel as well as allow the rear to be further tapered (even if only that the bottom) this will reduce rear turbulence and eddies that cause rear drag as the air leaves the vehicle surface. There has been talk about the grill size being reduced. And I do fully stand by the addition of a small turbo, increasing power to weight increases efficiency. Too much gas is wasted during the "getting up to cruising speed" portion of highway travel. Since turbo's only really add performance under 80-100% throttle, this is perfect for increasing power to get up to speed without struggling and sucking down gas.
Also, to increase city MPG and appeal to a larger market (still don't see this as a city car like the prius) How hard would it be to add one of those "engine off when the car is stopped" options? I haven't researched what goes into those, but I'm pretty sure it's nothing extra other than programming. That would greatly increase the MPG for the city specs AND increase market desirability.
Anyway, just my 200 cents.
Great post!
Paul Elio has actually stated how they came up with the 84 mpg goal. 84 mpg it is 3x the current average highway fuel economy of 28 mpg. Something tells me that logic along the lines of what you pointed out is what lead them to believe this was an entirely possible number to achieve from such a vehicle and probably got this project rolling back in 2008.
We will see what changes they make to the front end to help achieve their aerodynamic numbers as they have been refining the shape in each prototype to make things more efficient so it is entirely possible some changes along the lines of what you mentioned may be incorporated into the P5 design.
Paul Elio has mentioned hat IAV was working on a turbo for this motor so I would expect this to eventually become an option for those who want more power. I can see this being a very popular option for people looking for a very inexpensive car with a very good power to weight ratio making for some extra fun times. I doubt the turbo would be standard item purely do to the extra cost of the turbo and EM trying to keep this car as inexpensive as possible.
We actually already have an ongoing discussion on start/stop systems. There are several ways of doing it but some current vehicles have indeed achieved this only via engine ECU programming. I don't know if Elio Motors will have the time and money to develop this technology before production begins however I would also like to see it eventually as it would help increase that city mileage number.
http://www.elioowners.com/threads/start-stop-system.812/