Time To "get 'er Done"

[Ocean9000]

Can't say anything about "all in" - it would be inappropriate!

o_O


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!

 

[goofyone]

In my opinion - EM (IAV) needs another 2-3 months to complete engine testing. So May. Then another 2-3 months to build 24 or 25 test platforms, the motors for which would be produced concurrently. So August. 3-4 months for testing and refinement, during with time financing and working capital/credit are finalized. So December. Another 3 months for supply chain priming, hiring, training and production readiness. So if absolutely nothing goes pear shaped, initial production could begin as early as March or April of 2016.
This is pure speculation using what little I know of finance, construction, production and engineering...

This looks very good for pure speculation and it also happens to pretty much match up with what EM has told us to expect along the way. Then again why shouldn't it as you thought about this logically and came up with what looks to be a good answer as a result. Now all we have to do is wait and watch and hope EM is able to overcome the usual start-up issues of money and developmental delays.

 

[Dusty921]

here's what I signed up for, A heaping helping of mirth, with two sides of
fun. LMFAO

 

[Ocean9000]

This looks very good for pure speculation and it also happens to pretty much match up with what EM has told us to expect along the way. Then again why shouldn't it as you thought about this logically and came up with what looks to be a good answer as a result. Now all we have to do is wait and watch and hope EM is able to overcome the usual start-up issues of money and developmental delays.

Thanx, G1 - of course I am just as rabid as many here to have it yesterday, unfortunately reality has interfered with many of my desires.

I especially want it now with the newly postulated "enhancement" option...

 

[Ocean9000]

It occurs to me that I saw a rendering on one of the other threads of the latest prototype. It was definitely longer... There may be something to this after all...

 

[RUCRAYZE]

I don't trust elio because they have deliberately mislead and directed people into sending money without having a solid business plan.

Even though we have talked a bit in pm's, you do not understand my thinking at all. Missing the dates is minor in comparison to the reasons behind the dates being missed. Either they have not created Gantt charts (or the equivalent) internally, or they have repeatedly lied about the production dates. There are a number of things that have to happen before a production vehicle can be delivered. Some of these things must be done serially, others in parallel, and many can overlap. The mantra for excusing the missed production dates is something like "It's really hard to start a new car company." Well, duh. The question is "When did elio figure that out?" Was it before or after they made promises, or "casually mentioned some nebulous goals"? Back before this forum was created, they were presenting the Trikke as having all the R&D completed. Not only was that not true two years ago, it is still not true. For this project to come together, there are a number of areas/fields/professions that need to work in unison. Marketing/advertising/sales, accounting/finance, engineering/design, supply lines/manufacturing, distribution/support, management/training, and more. Elio motors has devolved into principally a marketing concern. They have made a fair amount of money for a 20-25 person outfit selling t-shirts and bumper stickers. They are back to bringing in about $20-25k per day doing this. In their peak times, they were collecting over $100k per day, and averaged over $40k per day for a long time. Those are pretty impressive numbers. During that time, paul elio told me in person that they had sold more vehicles the month before in the U.S.A. than Mitsubishi. Unfortunately, he has/had fallen victim to believing his own press releases. He hasn't sold any vehicles yet. Just t-shirts and bumper stickers. "Read the agreement", no obligation to build, to sell, nor to buy any vehicle.

Engineers are curious people. They like to try things out, to built and test, and try it again. The sales people apparently took over the company, and the engineers went into hiding. I've stated it before, but any engineer worth his salt would have tested the P3 and P4 for acceleration, handling, mileage, etc. They would have insisted that the exhaust system be repaired. They would have put a latch on the trunk right after the first show. They would be insisting on having the abs and traction control on test vehicles. They would have insisted on a build with production ride height. Unfettered, engineers would be happy to play with prototypes until the money ran out.

Sales people love the show, the glamor, the attention. The are good at separating prospects from their money. When the company finally realized that they could collect more money from the work of the sales/marketing force than from the engineers, all the focus moved to sales. Unfortunately, sales people usually aren't great money managers, and often spend it as fast as they make it. Especially if it's not their money.

Which brings us to the accounting/finance types. Good at managing money, or at least preserving what already exists. Ideally, they shoot for bang-for-the-buck, but often it just comes down to not liking to spend money.

Leadership and management need to coordinate these groups and play off the best of the capabilities of all of them, and the other members of the team. Unfortunately, the balance fell almost entirely to marketing. The company apparently had designers, but nobody to actually built and test the product. So no prototypes were built and tested. The marketing people got a couple of show circuit units. They made promises that the engineering types would have to keep, but never got the chance to build and test.

The original off-the-shelf project turned into a contradiction of the over-exuberant promises of the marketing people. The $150M needed to start the project in 2013 has now become $300M. No further development and testing has taken place for two years. I'm sure some CAD work has been happening behind the scenes, and the front suspension and bodywork has been tweaked, but no real world testing has happened.

So where is the company now? There is no public information as to how much of the $65M that has been claimed to have been raised is left. We have been told that $26M went to the plant equipment. At least $1M of the $30M private placement went to fees. Another $1M ($987K) went to the BoD. Another $1-2M in salaries for the last 2 years. T&E for the road show probably ate up at least another $.5M. According to Hector $1M went to the prototypes. At most that leaves about $30-35M before money is spent on the engine development, factory rent, and who knows what else.

From all appearances, they don't seem to have enough money to build another prototype. Which they claimed cost $100k, up until a couple of months ago, when the cost magically, a year after it was built, went up to $500k.

Anyway, I didn't mean to write a book. I haven't even started on the nonsensical arguments as to why they needed to build their own engine. That alone, without allowing for inflation, easily explains the increase from $150M to $300M needed to get the project off the ground. Did you hear paul explain that they could not buy the engine because engine manufacturers are capitalists and would want to make a profit on the engine? Where is he going to get the rest of the parts (off the shelf) and materials to build the vehicle? From communists? Everybody wants to make a profit. Without profit, businesses fail, and consumers have no product to buy.

If this forum wanted to be of value to elio motors, the members, who are supportive, should be asking the hard questions. Being able to answers the hard questions is the only hope elio has of making it to production. Misdirection and canned answers will work on low information voters, but they will not work on serious investors. It has worked repeatedly with the government, so it might work again there.

Feel free to dismiss me as a troll, or call me a fool, or part of some evil conspiracy if you wish. If the numbers don't work, money people will not invest. If the numbers work, but the wrong people are running the show, the money people will want control and will put in their own people.

Det ar roliga!!! Swedish !! Could you please expand I'm not sure about 3-4 paragraph??

 

[RUCRAYZE]

It may be difficult to grasp, but when I saw the press release about the Shreveport plant being acquired, and saw the pics and claimed specs of the P2, I stated that that would be my next vehicle. I told friends about it. All of my "bad attitude" comes from observation and research. Elio motors had me at the first contact. They lost me because of their continued deception and poor management. I do not work for any PR firm, nor for any company that even remotely might benefit from elio motors failure. I lament them losing their way and bringing about their own demise. I honestly do not believe that there are any businesses actively seeking elio's failure. I am acting as an observer and reporter of what I see and offer my conclusions. I would love to see elio come clean, change course and git 'er done.

"they lost you" ? but your still here? " --Vous etes fous?

 

[RUCRAYZE]

Elio certainly has challenges but how on earth could this be a scam ? Imagine the complexity of this "scam" . Well known board members , leases , road trips , equipment sales , prototypes , channel partners , engine development etc etc all to glean some reservation deposits???
If this is a scam , it's the worst in history. Paul could have sold penis enlargement pills much more profitably .

thanks, well said!

 

[JEBar]

Um, wow, okay - is this the "git 'er done" thread? [knock, knock]

In my opinion - EM (IAV) needs another 2-3 months to complete engine testing. So May. Then another 2-3 months to build 24 or 25 test platforms, the motors for which would be produced concurrently. So August. 3-4 months for testing and refinement, during with time financing and working capital/credit are finalized. So December. Another 3 months for supply chain priming, hiring, training and production readiness. So if absolutely nothing goes pear shaped, initial production could begin as early as March or April of 2016.
This is pure speculation using what little I know of finance, construction, production and engineering...

Comments?

Of course this is all manure if PE is gonna run away to Rio with all the pre-sale capital or it will cost $12k and get 60MPG...

I like you analysis .... I haven't expended the effort to breakdown the timeline into segments .... I have no doubt that EM has a clearly designed course they need to follow from now to production .... they know exactly how long it will take to get each of the components in place and the order that they need to be accomplished .... taking the mid 2016 as a do or die date, I believe that not seeing substantial progress by mid summer will start to raise red flags .... if none by fall, the hurricane warning flags need to be flying ....

 

[RUCRAYZE]

Another emergency reference please, we're VERY sensitive about hurricane warnings! (South Florida- )83deg, whew, time to turn on the A.C.