Probability Of Success Of Investment Concerning Timing Of Various Down Payment Options.

[WAYNE]

I can say some things that was told to me and one was that next month will bring a big surprise. Thats all I could get. I will not mention any names.

 

[goofyone]

I tried real hard today to get a hint of the finances and how much more would it take to make everything a go. Very vague answer as they are a private company. I said if we knew how much the goal was then we would really try to help them reach the number if it was atainable in the near future. Say, 10,000 all in for 1000. No comment. I'm sure that the finaces will be held close to the chest. I think he did say they were like $230.00 over the target price now.

The biggest issue I see is that the marketing team driving the prototypes around the country aren't likely told much about company financials. They know a lot about the car and the company goals but likely don't know much about what is going on behind scenes with the business side of things beyond whatever talking points they are given. Someone really needs to get some time with Paul Elio or another senior executive and ask the hard questions directly as they are people who truly know all the business details.

 

[lafrisbee]

Don't kid yourself. It'll take way more than that to move this ELIO to the production phase. I'm sorry to burst your bubble and bring you back to reality but if you're contented on the rising reservation numbers or the 100,000 LIKES and think that would be enough, you've got another coming. Funding is first and foremost the fundamental issue here which EM has not discussed let alone a hint of investors. No money, no honey!

I can fully see your logic, but I am like most on here and will believe my own little world.

 

[jetpack54]

Logic has nothing to do with it. It's facing reality. EM is playing with our dreams. A dream of owning an ELIO someday. But without some investors backing them up, there's no backbone for them to stand up. It's a balancing act for EM. If they come clean and announce that there' no investors yet to support their project, people will stay away from it. On the flip side, it's where they stand right now, playing with our dreams and our hopes of good things to come but at what expense and the big question mark....when!

 

[lafrisbee]

Ok you are right, no logic, you are just like the rest of us.

 

[jetpack54]

Ok you are right, no logic, you are just like the rest of us.

I know you'll get it eventually!

 

[3 Card]

I would not take a 3000 mile trip on my Harley,, I trailer it to events then ride when there..But may times I drive long distance in my Jeep Wrangler by myself, sometimes I rent an eco box just to hold down the miles on my Jeep..It's 19 months old and just turned 9 thousand ,, probably put 20 k on rentals..For those type of solo trips an Elio would work for me.. Hey for 7 grand you could wear one out every 2 years then replace it for chump change.

 

[3 Card]

I thought of adding this in with my other thread creation, but my text got to the size that this really needed to be separate thread. As someone in the Finance / Accounting field I haven't seen 'timing' discussed nearly as much as I would expect concerning the down payment / reservation. Perhaps that's because such a large portion of the people on here have already made a reservation so it's a 'moot point' once that happens.

I don't see why I would consider putting $100 all in today, Rather than a $1000 All-IN in the future.

For example: Someone putting down a $1000 all-in in 6-9 Months could be taking a much smaller risk overall than someone putting down $100 all-in today. Assume that today there is a 25% chance of success*. In 9 months it is clear the company will be producing and there is a 95% Chance of success , (On the other hand if things looks less likely you may not invest at all.).
Probability wise your expected outcome is to to lose $75 on the $100 investment. You expect to lose $50 on the $1000. The person placing the $1000 bet took much less risk and gets their car sooner. Yes just like placing a single bet at a roulette table you are going to either win or lose. I.e. It might be similar to place a thousand dollar bet split between Black and Even on a roulette table or placing a $100 on the number 20. In a single bet you will either Win or Lose, but you can diagnose the probability beforehand.

(I don't think anyone in a general public really has a good estimate of Elios success at this point, so these numbers are entirely made up) I haven't purchase at all in this point, I'm just comparing the options. - Anyone at the top of the list have cold feet, feel free to contact me.

For me, I would probably go All-IN $1000 or not invest at all.

I'm pretty decent with numbers, but I don't tend to be the "Smartest Person in the Room" much of the time. Any thoughts on my thoughts?

*Sucess: define success how you'd like. For me I'm defining success as either they meet the All-IN reservations, or perhaps even meet my "All-IN" reservation.

Bean counters..Gotta love um..Going going all in for the thousand will get an extra 500 applied to purchase price.. Not bad interest for letting Elio use your bucks a year.. A bank would give you less than 10 bucks for the amount and time.. 9 months from now Elio probably will not have the offer going on..Risk, sure !! I do stocks for a living (trader) so risk is my way of life.. The 1000 dollar all in factor by many help Elio secure funding from lenders..Think of this as Elio talking to fiance people..Elio says, " hey mr lender we already have 10,000 people comitted to purchase and we have 100 bucks from each to show they are sincere" Lender says"whoopie a whole hundred".. Now Elio again.. " Mr Lender we have 15, 000 folks who Have sent us A thousand dollars to help show public desire for our vehicle " Bank , " Wow Mr Elio that's 15 million, show us your business plan"...Can this not happen ? yep !! But even Paul Elio would not be soo enthused If all he had was a thousand or so paying 100 bucks in advance... There would be temptation to dump the project or build a piece of crap then get out.. We, (myself included ) complain about . changing the p3, headlights, rear etc..I seriously doubt if Elio is not dead serious and commited to build something to make the big 3-4 car companies squirm a little they would not be doing all the research, testing and changing..That's why I was willing to Risk my thousand .. Twice ..

 

[Chris F]

Banks are not the place to turn to when starting a company like this. What Elio will do is find several venture capital firms willing to invest the necessary funds to get the company off the ground and running. With the right deals it is possible for Elio to raise several hundred million dollars this way. The IPO will come but only after vehicles have been coming off the assembly line and are being sold to the general public. At this point an IPO is used so the venture capital investors, as well as Paul Elio and all his associates, can cash out. Of course before you get to the point where an IPO would make sense the business could go bankrupt and/or be sold.

Agreed. Putting down a down payment doesn't make you an investor. Elio will probably go through a couple more rounds of financing before it sells a vehicle. I think the purpose of much of the promotion now is NOT to get deposits but to get the financing types to take notice. The deposits are to prove to the VC's that there is a market for the product and to finance the PR, mainly.
Chris from DE

 

[Chris F]

Reasoning: setting aside a little money every month for the car and reducing the temptation to spend on something else by increasing your all-in.

I'm planning on putting my contract signing bonus that I get in 2 weeks towards this, and the rest going into a savings account dedicated to getting the Elio. I'm planning on $10k after fees and options.

My only concern is whether my existing car will crap out before the Elio is manufactured, I already put $1600 in repairs into it last year + normal maintenance on top of that. Thus far, I have encountered every single known issue with my model.

In the past, I've had a Chevy Sprint, which finally died in 1998, as a commuter car. I replaced it with a GEO Prizm (1995) and I'm just trying to keep it going until the Elio becomes available. My GEO has 180K and will probably last. I'm putting a little away every month as well; if the Elio credit card is a good deal, I might get 2.