Is Elio Sandbagging?

[JEBar]

Talked to a couple of the guys with the Elio team Saturday in Charlotte about production startup. As I expected, they both said what we all have heard over and over- 4th quarter '15.
But- I sorta got the impression that they might be holding back and it could start as early as the first of September as originally planned. One of them flat out said he expected to start earlier than currently predicted with as few as 100+ cars a day with a very limited production crew and hours.

I can see how basing the start of production date on when the first Elio starts down the line or basing it on when the day the line reaches full production as being two very different dates ...it seems reasonable to believe that it will take days (if not weeks) to get the line rolling at the 250 per day level

Jim

 

[Ekh]

At this point with the engine undergoing full scale development to be followed by full vehicle testing when the engine is tested enough for that I do believe EM has set things in motion to make a serious run of at the very least having some pre-production vehicles coming of the line by the end of the 3rd quarter.

Having said that I also believe that 3rd quarter production is predicated on receiving the ATVM loan in the first half of the year and my guess is that EM is using the production schedule as a carrot to encourage the DOE to approve that loan. Politicians like opportunities to look good, as they generally do a good job looking like idiots, so it would look really good if the DOE approves the loan and less than six months later the first of 10's of thousands of pre-ordered vehicles begins rolling of the assembly line in Shreveport.

If the ATVM loan takes longer than expected or the ATVM loan is denied then timing may shift but hopefully the private funds which EM says they have commitments materialize at this point as a denial of the ATVM loan would not be good news for EM and would be a hurdle they would have to overcome very quickly to keep the negative publicity this would cause them under control.

You do have a good grasp of things -- it's appreciated. The only kicker I know of is that the 25 test vehicles are being outsourced, and construction of them has not yet begun. Without automated tooling, I don't see how they can wait, and then build the test vehicles in a timely enough manner to have testing completed, or at least well under way, while they're building up the plant. The machining specs depend on at least one of those vehicles being completed, so not having even started them indicates things may run more slowly than you suggest (and we all hope). To make their 3rd (or even 4th) quarter deadline, they need to be building those buggies NOW.

I can't see delaying construction of the test fleet waiting for the ATVM. (The Robert E. Lee?). Elio has claimed that they have the funding for those test vehicles, and if so -- why delay building them? The engines can be dropped in late in the process -- it's not like building the shell around the drive train (or is it?). What this looks like is sequential staging, instead of concurrent operations (engine and test car build). Not being on the inside, I don't know why they're going this route, but it surely does look peculiar for a firm as publicly committed to production as Elio now is.

I do know Paul Elio is a very, very smart cookie. I also know he's human, and therefore able to make mistakes, viz, the Elgin Dash of ill-repute. It's his car, and his strategy, and one cannot doubt his sincerity or determination to get it done. But I do hope not to die of old age before I get my Elio!

 

[JP]

Having multiple production delays up to this point, I doubt that they would sandbag

 

[Oldfarmer]

The reason I asked was that I became a good sandbagger by watching sandbaggers. I owned the 3rd largest commercial drywall company in this area for over 20 years. Prior to that I worked for the largest one. The GC's we dealt with were excellent sandbaggers. If they wanted a job done in six months they would demand we do it 4. When I opened my company we would tell them that 6 was unreasonable but we could do it in 8. Then we would do it in 6. When I was with the first company a GC would demand 20 men on a project even if it only needed 10 and the company would promise the 20 and only send 10. Broken promise. With my own company if they demanded 20 I would tell them they only get 10 and then send 20. By the time I retired I my company had a good reputation of meeting or exceeding expectations. The other outfit is still around and their reputation is the same as when I left there nearly 30 years ago. Everyone knows they promise the world but deliver ant hills.
I'm hoping that Elio will meet or exceed our expectations.

 

[Mike W]

Under promise, over deliver. I like that in a business. The customer shouldn't have to be a dentist, you know, it's like pulling teeth to get what was promised. Here's to hoping Elio is the former and not the latter.

 

[Tomg3rd]

I really don't expect them to go through with the plan to make a bunch of test vehicles. I think they will use the existing P4 and design production around that- yes with a few changes. As for crash testiing I think they will rely on computer testing and later test the production models off the line- the same ones we will be getting. We will hope for the best crash test results. If needed the company can make changes on the fly after the results come out...I recall not long ago a major car maker did just that when they got a bad crash test result.

 

[Neal]

I really don't expect them to go through with the plan to make a bunch of test vehicles. I think they will use the existing P4 and design production around that- yes with a few changes. As for crash testiing I think they will rely on computer testing and later test the production models off the line- the same ones we will be getting. We will hope for the best crash test results. If needed the company can make changes on the fly after the results come out...

I see that as a definate possibility. plus, just now thinking about it, a car that comes off the line might not be exactly like a hand made car. I am no gear head, but logic tells me it might not be exactly the same. (though I've been wrong once or twice in my life)

 

[Ekh]

I really don't expect them to go through with the plan to make a bunch of test vehicles. I think they will use the existing P4 and design production around that- yes with a few changes. As for crash testiing I think they will rely on computer testing and later test the production models off the line- the same ones we will be getting. We will hope for the best crash test results. If needed the company can make changes on the fly after the results come out...

The crash rating depends on the interaction of the crush zone structures with the rest of the body. Not easy to make such deep structural changes "on the fly." So I suspect they really are going to go for those ratings prior to finalizing machining.

 

[Ekh]

My business is tiny. But I make it a practice to exceed customers' expectations -- and am careful to set those expectations at a realistic level. And yes, every once in a while we fall short ... and then bust our buts to rectify the shortcoming. I have to shave my face and couldn't look in the mirror if I routinely mis-led people.

 

[JEBar]

I really don't expect them to go through with the plan to make a bunch of test vehicles.

I tend to believe they will custom build a few (not a bunch, might be as little as one or two) of vehicles to use in road testing .... that testing may well be the ones used for reservation holder test drives .... at some point one will be used to setup the assembly machines

Jim