Elio Motors @ New York Auto Show 2015

[Ty]

Ty, it's Friday and not enough oxygen is getting to my brain, I'm certain of it. Help me understand... you mentioned that EM will continue to take orders while they are producing cars. I thought we had mentioned in the past, that at some point reservations will be closed or shut down. Is Paul implying that they won't ever shut down reservations?

I think they'll keep taking orders directly until they get stores set up. They won't set up stores until they can actually produce enough cars to get the marshaling centers going. They'll stop the 50% matching for sure. They'll probably also stop taking "First year production" deposits before they start production. What they won't do is stop taking orders altogether. As people see the first few on the road, orders will go up fast. The factory probably won't keep up with demand which could be good for people who have a couple of reservations and want to sell one for a quick profit.

 

[Anderson Howard]

I think they'll keep taking orders directly until they get stores set up. They won't set up stores until they can actually produce enough cars to get the marshaling centers going. They'll stop the 50% matching for sure. They'll probably also stop taking "First year production" deposits before they start production. What they won't do is stop taking orders altogether. As people see the first few on the road, orders will go up fast. The factory probably won't keep up with demand which could be good for people who have a couple of reservations and want to sell one for a quick profit.

If anyone is going to the Auto Show in New York and they see Mr. Elio would You ask how the engine test is going.

 

[Jeff Porter]

Thanks Hector and Ty, I think I'm starting to put it together in my head.

My latest point of confusion: why talk about a first-year-reservation cutoff, and then say that 250k vehicles will be produced in the first year, if the current reservation total is 41k?

 

[pistonboy]

Yeah... I didn't know either and am hoping someone will see this and correct it. Actually, it doesn't matter that much to me. I won't be a certified investor or whatever it is.

I found out which it is. Under 'Investor Inquiries' at the elio website, they say to direct inquiries to:

Network 1 Financial Securities, Inc.
2 Bridge Avenue, Building 2
Red Bank, NJ 07701

 

[BaldGuy]

A news conference as critical as the NY Auto Show needed to be more than just ok. PE needs to appoint a marketing spokesperson and stick with what he does best, engineering.

I disagree. I think Paul himself speaking is great and is good for the company. Serious investors will crunch the numbers and if they are not able too, will have there advisers crunch them and recommend what to do. Paul not being afraid to answer questions and provide honest feedback would be plus for me in additional to the financial information. I think due to politicians only reading prepared speeches due to they are scared they might say the wrong thing and offend someone has got us all afraid of anyone speaking freely anymore. Paul might fart, which would cause someone that was going to invest 10 million not too, etc. But if he only reads prepared statements or has someone else do the talking, it would seem he isn't serious about his project and has something to hide.

And as a plus, gives us reservation holders better information then the marketing website.

 

[Ty]

I found out which it is. Under 'Investor Inquiries' at the elio website, they say to direct inquiries to:

Network 1 Financial Securities, Inc.
2 Bridge Avenue, Building 2
Red Bank, NJ 07701

Thanks!

 

[pistonboy]

It looks like Corporate Fuel Securities is out and Network 1 Financial Securities is in.

Corporate Fuel Securities, was strictly private placement. In looking at the website of Network 1 Financial Securities, I see they do mention private placement, but by far they talk much more about managing public companies and doing IPO (Initial Public Offering which is when companies go publicly traded for the first time). This is something Corporate Fuel Securities could not do. I am sure EM will still take private placement if Network 1 Financial Securities can come up with it, but it looks like EM is setting the stage to go public.

 

[goofyone]

It looks like Corporate Fuel Securities is out and Network 1 Financial Securities is in.

Corporate Fuel Securities, was strictly private placement. In looking at the website of Network 1 Financial Securities, I see they do mention private placement, but by far they talk much more about managing public companies and doing IPO (Initial Public Offering which is when companies go publicly traded for the first time). This is something Corporate Fuel Securities could not do. I am sure EM will still take private placement if Network 1 Financial Securities can come up with it, but it looks like EM is setting the stage to go public.

Another interesting development to consider is that there are some big changes coming to securities, in just 60 days, which change the way small companies raise money so EM may not be planning for a public IPO just yet and could instead be planning to take advantage of these changes in law which are on the way. A public IPO comes with a lot of regulations and strings attached so I do not believe it would make sense for a company, such as EM, which does not even have a product for sale just yet to do a traditional IPO.

The new SEC regulations, going live in about 60 days, are related to Title IV of the JOBS Act and are actually over due. These rules seriously expand how EM can raise money as they specifically allow for directly investing in companies via equity crowdfunding from non-accredited investors and allow small businesses to raise raise up to $50,000,000 each year, from both accredited and non-accredited investors, before big time SEC reporting rules become necessary.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/chanceb...s-equity-crowdfunding-with-jobs-act-title-iv/

 

[Ty]

Thanks Hector and Ty, I think I'm starting to put it together in my head.

My latest point of confusion: why talk about a first-year-reservation cutoff, and then say that 250k vehicles will be produced in the first year, if the current reservation total is 41k?

If I'm understanding right, at some point, Elio will want to produce some vehicles for their stores. (of course they will) Now, when does it make the most sense to start filling the stores and marshaling centers? Right before you run through reservations, of course. Rather than letting people reserve a certain production number of Elio (I'm # 3898!), they'll start taking orders without production numbers so they can begin filtering in orders for the marshaling centers and stores.

Example as I'm thinking about it. Dates are nominal, just for timeline... I'm not going to do the math on production numbers, ramp up, etc.
60,000 pre-orders is the "cut-off" But, I'll make one assumption - 533 per day is one Elio per 54 seconds for one shift. That is what the line in Shreveport used to run at and should be able to do the same for Elio. Running two shifts should be able to produce 1066 per day. I ran this example saying they could only make 8,000 per month (which I am making 4 weeks long). Basically, after the first month. I'm assuming they can only run at 75% of what GM could.


Jan 01, 2016 -- Elio # 1 comes off the line, backlog of pre-orders is 59,999
Jan 20, 2016 -- Elio # 3,200 comes off the line, backlog of pre-orders is 56,799
Mar 01, 2016 -- # 11,200 comes off the line, backlog of pre-orders is 48,800... new order backlog is 500 (they changed from pre-orders to regular orders)
Apr 01, 2016 -- # 20,000 comes off the line, backlog of pre-orders is 40,000... new order backlog is 2,500 (orders are ramping up because GoofyOne is showing his off so much)
May 01, 2016 -- #28,000 comes off the line, backlog of pre-orders is 32,000... new order backlog is 4,500
Jun 01, 2016 -- #44,000 comes off the line, backlog of pre-orders is 16,000... new order backlog is 6,500 (second shift was added finally!)
Jul 01, 2016 -- #60,000 comes off the line, backlog of pre-orders is gone... new order backlog is 8,500
Aug 01, 2016 -- #76,000 comes off the line, backlog of pre-orders is 8,000... new order backlog is 10,500...
Sep 01, 2016 -- #92,000 comes off the line, backlog is gone... new order backlog is 12,500 - 4,000 extras = 8,500... 4,000 sent to marshaling centers/stores which are set up and ready for sales
Oct 01, 2016 --#108,000 comes off the line, Paul drinks coffee, new order backlog is gone, 3,500 go to marshaling centers/stores


What the big unknown is to me is how popular will the Elio be? If the popularity is high enough, Elio could delay opening stores till it looks like they need to open the stores to reach the much larger population who drives before buying.

 

[creekstone]

I think Paul himself speaking is great and is good for the company.

Absolutely. Elon Musk sticks his foot in his mouth on occasion. But we still want to hear what he has to say.

Keep Paul talking. Real person. Real passion. Real accountability.