Elio gets a new neighbor

[AriLea]

though unknown how it translate to real sales, especially after the initial grab.

Feet on the ground is a start, so I did try and interview all types of people. My best assesment, very price driven (initial and operational i.e fuel) for the Elio kind of product offer, No surprise. Also seems to be a hard wall at the issue of solo or two seater. So two was a must to get that volume of sales.

The threshold seem to say, at lease $1K-2K less than the lowest priced 4 wheel ecconomy car.

 

[RSchneider]

Impressive none the less for such a bespoke vehicle, though unknown how it translate to real sales, especially after the initial grab.

It was at a time when crowdfunding was all the rage. Then with the $6800 price tag along with 84 mpg and 5 star crash rating, ex GM plant to build it and Pep Boys doing the service, it was an easier sell. Even though those were just claims and none of it proven, it resulted in $26M for Elio. These people that put down this money were not even allowed to even drive one in a parking lot. So many just sat in one and that's it. The power of marketing at it's best. I hand it to Elio by having one of the best marketing machines in a while.

Elio sold a dream yet if he was only to sell 5K per year, that was never going to get the funding. Thus, claim 250K per year. That should get investors interested. As Paul admitted, "The markets are broken". Yet others were getting millions when it came to funding. They were broken for Elio.

Now we watch FUV. The company's claims of 50K by 2025 don;t look s great and they even have vehicles out on the street which in 2022, should have made the goal of 1K to be no big deal.

Now we watch Aptera. It's obvious they are limited on funding and they have been backing up on the production dates. I read many of those people are a bit upset because they put money down and they want their Aptera right now.

Nimbus will be another one. I see that it will be a niche of the three wheeler market. Way too many things can go wrong with that design. Thus why the company has been silent for a while.

 

[AriLea]

You really have to look at the market that Elio or any vehicle is engaged in as a grid. Accross the top is the different interests, and the popluation they represent. It is very detailed if a select population is a combination of two interests. Then along the left side the time related, initial, ramp-up, @saturation, ongoing, recurring or other phaze related categories.

Different cells in this grid have a percentage projection against the population, in fact actually a curve graph related to price. Every vehicle can have the full chart plotted, i.e. all interests, but some of the interest groups are insignificant for that vehicle. We call that a 'type of vehicle'.

So in foot-to-the gound research, you try and discover the interests, the populations in each and the % projection for each cell in the grid.

My chart, just guessing at the values, blew the Solo completely out when it went somewhere above $15k. The Elio-ICE blew out at $15k anywhere past ramp-up. It's interesting that the new Elio-EV is under $15k. Trading off the Solo for Tandem, would that make the later phazes work out? I haven't triied that chart yet.

I think Elio's only problem, then and now, was getting the investment. They worked very well at getting public interest, it was investor interest where they have failed on so far. Other management issues you can debate, be my guest.

Maybe they needed to do a grid calcuation for the investor population, but on profit margin and not price. I don't know how to do such a chart. I don't know the investor population that well, err ahmm, not at all infact. Analysing an investment is not the same as analysing the investors.

Crowd funding has typcially reached as high as a few million, no where near the level Elio required. He started this adventure before crowd funding or even bit coin was a big deal.

 

[Mark BEX]

My chart, just guessing at the values, blew the Solo completely out when it went somewhere above $15k. The Elio-ICE blew out at $15k anywhere past ramp-up. It's interesting that the new Elio-EV is under $15k.

Some years back, maybe 10, the FAA did a study on behalf of the kit plane industry, but across all boards, not just aircraft of what price segments people will cater to for their prefered hobby vehicle.

They found almost exclusively for all vehicle types, dirtbikes, snowmobiles, jetskis etc, that the "$15K" you happen to mention is the turning point, and quite dramatic as well.

In other words people will buy literally any type of vehicle for it's perceived enjoyment or suitability factor, over associated financial risks, for any vehicle below $15K. Once over that $15K mark, prospective buyers drop off dramatically. Oh and the $15K was the purchase price, including costs over the first year of ownership.

 

[Mark BEX]

Now we watch Aptera. .... I read many of those people are a bit upset because they put money down and they want their Aptera right now.

Primary reason why I won't take deposits.

When, generalizing now, has a vehicle manufacturer ever met a release target date ... Yet they all still promise a date.

 

[RSchneider]

Primary reason why I won't take deposits.

When, generalizing now, has a vehicle manufacturer ever met a release target date ... Yet they all still promise a date.

They do and can but people usually don't put money down on those. Thus, people are more patient when they are late.

Vanderhall is a good example of a startup not taking money. They teased us with what they were going to do and people didn't mind waiting. 6 years after the formation of the company, they started selling them. Not long after that they learned that the Tesla model of direct sales was too much of a pain, thus they went the dealership route. Now they sell and go along their merry way. It's the reason why nobody talks about them as they did it the boring way. No drama.

Then you have Polaris. They cranked out the Slingshot but they were an established manufacturer. It worked out well for them. It's that it's super expensive at a base price of $21,499 and can be bought, serviced at a local dealer.

I still believe Elio ruined it for everyone else.

 

[Mark BEX]

I still believe Elio ruined it for everyone else.

Not as badly as Jeremy Clarkson did.

 

[RSchneider]

Not as badly as Jeremy Clarkson did.

You have to admit, that was a pretty funny episode. I did read somewhere that they welded up the spider gears to make it a locked rear axle, which made it much easier to roll.

 

[Mark BEX]

You have to admit, that was a pretty funny episode. I did read somewhere that they welded up the spider gears to make it a locked rear axle, which made it much easier to roll.

I laughed hysterically, but it single handed'ly killed 1/2 of any potential 3 wheeler business being successful.

Yes, they locked the diff up, and removed the rear leaf spring over-ride springs.

 

[Marshall]

Just a random thought of how it COULD get done.

I moved on to Toyota and the Prius Hybrid, so a hybrid, rather than electric is my power plant. They have the background to do it right and the resources. They also have a worldwide market so they could spread the minimum number of units across the world where this is really not as unusual from the current vehicles. They also have the existing network of sales sites in place as well as delivery logistics.

The change I would make is for the Hybrid to have a plug in OPTION for those who use the vehicle for daily commutes and local driving. But having the gasoline to extend the range and evacuation reliability.

Now it wouldn't meet the $8000 target of old, but with the Prius just $25K or so, I suspect they could achieve a price point of $15k.

I'm getting 53 MPG with all gasoline on my Corolla Hybrid, so I bet an inline, mostly single passenger, three wheel format would get close to the original target fuel economy.

Anyway, just a though.