Does The Elio Make Sense As An "and" Car?

[Maurtis]

First off, do not get me wrong. I want an Elio. I REALLY want an Elio. But I never wanted one for the fuel savings or reduced emissions but just because it was a very cool automobile. I think it will be an engaging drive and that appeals to me.

BUT... for the average American does it make sense to buy an Elio as a commuter to supplement their current fleet? It makes sense to buy an Elio if a current commuter dies and they need a new one, but what about as an "and" car?

The data on average commute distance is all over the place, but I am estimating about 10 miles each way (20 miles total) based on these numbers: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-typical-commutes-for-every-big-metro-area-2015-03-25

Elio estimated current cars on the road get around 21 MPG: https://www.eliomotors.com/it-pays-for-itself/

Gas prices over the years, we are currently in a low point (I am using $2.25 based on AAA numbers) but a high average of $4 is still not that bad: https://www.titlemax.com/discovery-center/planes-trains-and-automobiles/average-gas-prices-through-history/

Everyone's situation is different of course, I am using a $10,000 cost estimate for the Elio since that is the number I have seen used here in the past for the average optioned Elio out the door price. And assuming that maintenance costs for the Elio will be similar to current commuter cars, but with one less tire and lighter weight that may be a little lower too. But then again you have to pay for insurance and yearly registration for an extra vehicle, so calling those even.

I am going to compare both using the Elio as just a daily commuter using the average of a 20 mile commute as well as using the Elio as a primary vehicle for 12,000 miles per year. In Elio blogs and newsletters they use 12,000 miles, so their assumption is that the "and" vehicle does much more than just commuting.

Using the Elio as a daily commuter
-------------------------------------
Assumptions: 20 miles per day commute round trip
Elio MPG: 66.5 MPG combined (average of 49 city/ 84 highway)
Current MPG: 21 MPG combined
Cost of gas: $2.25 per gallon
Cost of a Elio: $10,000
-------------------------------------

Elio daily cost
20 miles driven / 66.5 MPG = 0.3 gallons
0.3 gallons * $2.25 = $0.68 per day in gas

Current daily cost
20 miles driven / 21 MPG = 0.95 gallons
0.95 gallons * $2.25 = $2.14 per day in gas

-------------------------------------

Daily gas savings
$2.14 - $0.68 = $1.46

Days for Elio to pay for itself:
$10,000 / $1.46 = 6,849 days (18.76 years)

-------------------------------------


Elio as a primary vehicle (12,000 miles per year)
-------------------------------------
Elio yearly cost
12,000 miles driven / 66.5 MPG = 180.45 gallons
180.45 gallons * $2.25 = $406.01 per year in gas

Current yearly cost
12,000 miles driven / 21 MPG = 571.43 gallons
571.43 gallons * $2 = $1,285.72 per day in gas
-------------------------------------

Yearly savings
$1,285.72 - $406.01 = $879.71

Years for Elio to pay for itself:
$10,000 / $879.71 = 11.37 years


So unless those numbers are off, if an average American only commutes in their Elio it would take almost 19 years for the extra cost to break even? If you double to gas price to $4.50 then that is still 9.5 years, way longer than most Americans keep vehicles.

Or if an average American primarily uses their Elio and their SUV/truck/family car mainly sits in the driveway then 11.37 years. But if the gas price doubles then the Elio pays for itself in less than 6 years. Interestingly enough, it looks like average Americans are holding onto new cars longer now, with a 6.5 year average! So just long enough for the Elio to make sense (if they mostly drive the Elio and gas prices double): https://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/28/americans-holding-onto-their-cars-longer-than-ever.html

 

[Travelbuzz1]

First off, do not get me wrong. I want an Elio. I REALLY want an Elio. But I never wanted one for the fuel savings or reduced emissions but just because it was a very cool automobile. I think it will be an engaging drive and that appeals to me.

BUT... for the average American does it make sense to buy an Elio as a commuter to supplement their current fleet? It makes sense to buy an Elio if a current commuter dies and they need a new one, but what about as an "and" car?

The data on average commute distance is all over the place, but I am estimating about 10 miles each way (20 miles total) based on these numbers: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-typical-commutes-for-every-big-metro-area-2015-03-25

Elio estimated current cars on the road get around 21 MPG: https://www.eliomotors.com/it-pays-for-itself/

Gas prices over the years, we are currently in a low point (I am using $2.25 based on AAA numbers) but a high average of $4 is still not that bad: https://www.titlemax.com/discovery-center/planes-trains-and-automobiles/average-gas-prices-through-history/

Everyone's situation is different of course, I am using a $10,000 cost estimate for the Elio since that is the number I have seen used here in the past for the average optioned Elio out the door price. And assuming that maintenance costs for the Elio will be similar to current commuter cars, but with one less tire and lighter weight that may be a little lower too. But then again you have to pay for insurance and yearly registration for an extra vehicle, so calling those even.

I am going to compare both using the Elio as just a daily commuter using the average of a 20 mile commute as well as using the Elio as a primary vehicle for 12,000 miles per year. In Elio blogs and newsletters they use 12,000 miles, so their assumption is that the "and" vehicle does much more than just commuting.

Using the Elio as a daily commuter
-------------------------------------
Assumptions: 20 miles per day commute round trip
Elio MPG: 66.5 MPG combined (average of 49 city/ 84 highway)
Current MPG: 21 MPG combined
Cost of gas: $2.25 per gallon
Cost of a Elio: $10,000
-------------------------------------

Elio daily cost
20 miles driven / 66.5 MPG = 0.3 gallons
0.3 gallons * $2.25 = $0.68 per day in gas

Current daily cost
20 miles driven / 21 MPG = 0.95 gallons
0.95 gallons * $2.25 = $2.14 per day in gas

-------------------------------------

Daily gas savings
$2.14 - $0.68 = $1.46

Days for Elio to pay for itself:
$10,000 / $1.46 = 6,849 days (18.76 years)

-------------------------------------


Elio as a primary vehicle (12,000 miles per year)
-------------------------------------
Elio yearly cost
12,000 miles driven / 66.5 MPG = 180.45 gallons
180.45 gallons * $2.25 = $406.01 per year in gas

Current yearly cost
12,000 miles driven / 21 MPG = 571.43 gallons
571.43 gallons * $2 = $1,285.72 per day in gas
-------------------------------------

Yearly savings
$1,285.72 - $406.01 = $879.71

Years for Elio to pay for itself:
$10,000 / $879.71 = 11.37 years


So unless those numbers are off, if an average American only commutes in their Elio it would take almost 19 years for the extra cost to break even? If you double to gas price to $4.50 then that is still 9.5 years, way longer than most Americans keep vehicles.

Or if an average American primarily uses their Elio and their SUV/truck/family car mainly sits in the driveway then 11.37 years. But if the gas price doubles then the Elio pays for itself in less than 6 years. Interestingly enough, it looks like average Americans are holding onto new cars longer now, with a 6.5 year average! So just long enough for the Elio to make sense (if they mostly drive the Elio and gas prices double): https://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/28/americans-holding-onto-their-cars-longer-than-ever.html

Current views on, How this Radical Car Missed its Chance to Change the World - 92,546 since December 24th, 2018 - "Two Bit da Vinci" on YouTube

 

[larryboy]

First off, do not get me wrong. I want an Elio. I REALLY want an Elio. But I never wanted one for the fuel savings or reduced emissions but just because it was a very cool automobile. I think it will be an engaging drive and that appeals to me.

BUT... for the average American does it make sense to buy an Elio as a commuter to supplement their current fleet? It makes sense to buy an Elio if a current commuter dies and they need a new one, but what about as an "and" car?

The data on average commute distance is all over the place, but I am estimating about 10 miles each way (20 miles total) based on these numbers: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-typical-commutes-for-every-big-metro-area-2015-03-25

Elio estimated current cars on the road get around 21 MPG: https://www.eliomotors.com/it-pays-for-itself/

Gas prices over the years, we are currently in a low point (I am using $2.25 based on AAA numbers) but a high average of $4 is still not that bad: https://www.titlemax.com/discovery-center/planes-trains-and-automobiles/average-gas-prices-through-history/

Everyone's situation is different of course, I am using a $10,000 cost estimate for the Elio since that is the number I have seen used here in the past for the average optioned Elio out the door price. And assuming that maintenance costs for the Elio will be similar to current commuter cars, but with one less tire and lighter weight that may be a little lower too. But then again you have to pay for insurance and yearly registration for an extra vehicle, so calling those even.

I am going to compare both using the Elio as just a daily commuter using the average of a 20 mile commute as well as using the Elio as a primary vehicle for 12,000 miles per year. In Elio blogs and newsletters they use 12,000 miles, so their assumption is that the "and" vehicle does much more than just commuting.

Using the Elio as a daily commuter
-------------------------------------
Assumptions: 20 miles per day commute round trip
Elio MPG: 66.5 MPG combined (average of 49 city/ 84 highway)
Current MPG: 21 MPG combined
Cost of gas: $2.25 per gallon
Cost of a Elio: $10,000
-------------------------------------

Elio daily cost
20 miles driven / 66.5 MPG = 0.3 gallons
0.3 gallons * $2.25 = $0.68 per day in gas

Current daily cost
20 miles driven / 21 MPG = 0.95 gallons
0.95 gallons * $2.25 = $2.14 per day in gas

-------------------------------------

Daily gas savings
$2.14 - $0.68 = $1.46

Days for Elio to pay for itself:
$10,000 / $1.46 = 6,849 days (18.76 years)

-------------------------------------


Elio as a primary vehicle (12,000 miles per year)
-------------------------------------
Elio yearly cost
12,000 miles driven / 66.5 MPG = 180.45 gallons
180.45 gallons * $2.25 = $406.01 per year in gas

Current yearly cost
12,000 miles driven / 21 MPG = 571.43 gallons
571.43 gallons * $2 = $1,285.72 per day in gas
-------------------------------------

Yearly savings
$1,285.72 - $406.01 = $879.71

Years for Elio to pay for itself:
$10,000 / $879.71 = 11.37 years


So unless those numbers are off, if an average American only commutes in their Elio it would take almost 19 years for the extra cost to break even? If you double to gas price to $4.50 then that is still 9.5 years, way longer than most Americans keep vehicles.

Or if an average American primarily uses their Elio and their SUV/truck/family car mainly sits in the driveway then 11.37 years. But if the gas price doubles then the Elio pays for itself in less than 6 years. Interestingly enough, it looks like average Americans are holding onto new cars longer now, with a 6.5 year average! So just long enough for the Elio to make sense (if they mostly drive the Elio and gas prices double): https://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/28/americans-holding-onto-their-cars-longer-than-ever.html

I think you are looking at this in the worst possible way. Let's consider someone who has a new full size pickup or fancy SUV. Let's say they spent 40K on it and at the same time bought an Elio for 10K. Let's say that 3 years down the road they trade or sell both. The pickup or SUV has low miles and the original set of tires. The Elio is just out of warrantee and also has the original tires. You are going to get several thousand dollars more for the SUV or pickup because it has more garage time, fewer parking lot dings and low miles and you will have saved nearly a thousand dollars by not needing new tires. Your Elio that you bought for 10K should still be worth 7K or so. Maybe more because a poor person who needs to get to work every day would be well served by a used Elio. Your depreciation cost for the Elio would be around 3K. You would have saved almost 3K on gas AND you would have had the convenience of two vehicles during the three year period. I think that your Elio would save a considerable sum if you take all of these factors into consideration. You can play with these numbers any way you want but there are ways to save even more. If you keep the big vehicle for say,6 years you will avoid a big depreciation hit and so will save a lot more.
The Elio's low initial cost and low depreciation will make trading every 3 years a very sensible option for people who want to be able to predict their transportation costs. If your vehicle makes 80+MPG and is always under warrantee and never needs tires you can plan on driving the Elio for a couple of grand a year with no nasty surprises. When I sent a young person off to college I bought her a nice used car that rapidly turned into a money pit. I sold that one and bought another used car from my 80 year old MOTHER! Driven with care by a little old lady. Treated well, serviced as needed, garaged and driven very little. Another disaster. A new Elio would have paid for it's self twice over and that is not considering the fuel savings!

 

[johnsnownw]

I think you are looking at this in the worst possible way. Let's consider someone who has a new full size pickup or fancy SUV. Let's say they spent 40K on it and at the same time bought an Elio for 10K. Let's say that 3 years down the road they trade or sell both. The pickup or SUV has low miles and the original set of tires. The Elio is just out of warrantee and also has the original tires. You are going to get several thousand dollars more for the SUV or pickup because it has more garage time, fewer parking lot dings and low miles and you will have saved nearly a thousand dollars by not needing new tires. Your Elio that you bought for 10K should still be worth 7K or so. Maybe more because a poor person who needs to get to work every day would be well served by a used Elio. Your depreciation cost for the Elio would be around 3K. You would have saved almost 3K on gas AND you would have had the convenience of two vehicles during the three year period. I think that your Elio would save a considerable sum if you take all of these factors into consideration. You can play with these numbers any way you want but there are ways to save even more. If you keep the big vehicle for say,6 years you will avoid a big depreciation hit and so will save a lot more.
The Elio's low initial cost and low depreciation will make trading every 3 years a very sensible option for people who want to be able to predict their transportation costs. If your vehicle makes 80+MPG and is always under warrantee and never needs tires you can plan on driving the Elio for a couple of grand a year with no nasty surprises. When I sent a young person off to college I bought her a nice used car that rapidly turned into a money pit. I sold that one and bought another used car from my 80 year old MOTHER! Driven with care by a little old lady. Treated well, serviced as needed, garaged and driven very little. Another disaster. A new Elio would have paid for it's self twice over and that is not considering the fuel savings!

Well, you can get an idea of your 3 year scenario by plugging the SUV into an online appraisal. For instance, if you use a 2016 Ford Explorer:

2016 Limited
25,000
Outstanding Condition
$24,604 Private sale

2016 Limited
50,000
Clean Condition
21,573 Private Sale

Difference of $3,000

Now the 50k miles one might be in rougher shape than "clean," but seems unlikely in my experience of driving vehicles. So, would it be worth spending $10k on the Elio to save $3k when it's time to sell the SUV? You'll have around $1200 in gas saving over the Explorer with the Elio, so you'd save around $4200 over those 3 years. After 3 years you'd still have spent more money purchasing the Elio, however.

It does get better if you keep both vehicles for longer, however.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

If I used the math over the last 55 years,( and about 12-15 bikes,) to justify anything other then "toys", I'd be lying- I used them infrequently to commute, but frequently for recreation purposes. Milage? only to guesstimate- had early bikes with gas valve that you'd swing over to reserve, and plan a gas stop.
The Elio would fill the same need,- less commuting (very retired), and if it got 40 mpg, I'd still write the check- I've spent much more then $7.5k
for two wheels.

 

[Maurtis]

That does bring up an interesting point about the Elio resale market. We will not really know how well they hold their value until they are on the market. If a base model (no options) can be had OTD for say $9k (tax, title, fees), then trying to sell one used for $7k might be tough. I think $5k will be the sweet spot for used Elios, but that is just guessing.

I recently was looking at cheap used cars to supplement ours since we got rid of my wife's SUV in favor of a sedan but we still needed something with a little hauling capacity (my daily is a Miata). When looking around it seemed like $5k was right around the floor where you would find good condition, reliable used vehicles. Anything less and there was usually something, be it high mileage, age, damage, salvage title, etc.

 

[RSchneider]

You have to look at the real cost to buy an Elio for the average person. Let's look at some numbers:

Elio: $10,700
Tax (6%): $642
Shipping: $600 (using an average for shipping cars)
Fees: $100 (There will always be a paperwork fee)
License: $25

Total: $12,067

Then you have insurance. I've asked my insurance agent twice about the Elio and he can only guess. If the average person is going to use it not as a toy but for real driving back and forth to work (i.e. 12K average per year) then it'll be close to a cheap car like a Mirage or Versa.

So, I know that people here are only buying the $7450 model and many have discounts but in the end, for Elio to work, you have to look at the average person outside the 65K reservations. So a $12K price out the door is something that is realistic.

For an "and" car where a normal household has two cars, you now have a third. You pay insurance, license and maintenance for three instead of two. You still are paying for an inspection and emissions if you live in an area that has those for cars and the Elio might get a motorcycle inspection (if you live in an area that requires those). It's all of the little things that makes it take much longer to justify the cost of buying an "and" car as opposed to replacing one of your cars with an Elio.

 

[Sega]

I just don't see many people buying an "and" car. Why not an "and" tv, fridge, etc etc....

I think the buyer an elio type car is part of a small market/niche.

In terms of resale value, very few people actually worry about that. They say they worry about it at first, then immediately ignore it. Also, if that was the case, everyone would have an "and" car right now.

 

[RSchneider]

People end up having an "and" fridge. It's that when they do, it's usually one they got for free and stick it in the garage because they need more space. In the end, it costs them a pretty penny because it sits in a hot garage in the summer and pretty much had to run constantly to keep those extras (which usually is beer and soda) cold. I do know people that buy a brand new bare bones fridge for their second one and that even makes less sense to me. It's not like i live in an area where I can't get food and refreshments.

It's like my i3. I only bought it because it was a salvage car and I fixed it up. I could sell it for more than I have in it but I know I'll keep driving it. In the end, it's not the smartest decision because I should just sell it and collect the profit. It's an extra car that costs me the longer I hold onto it. I fall into that niche group that just did it because I wanted to. That's the crowd that I see who would want an Elio. They want that extra quirky car that gets attention and they can customize it, then show it off on social media. As for the people that actually need the car (the poor that drive 200 miles each day to a low paying job) they will probably still drive something else and even that market is really small.

In Europe, you see more and more SUV's. It's not like 20 years ago when they drove tiny super efficient cars. They now own one car and it's an SUV. One person in the household will drive it to work and the other just uses the public transportation. They only have an "and" car if they are into caravaning (we call it camping in the US). Even at that, they haul campers around with cars the size of a VW Golf and then use the Golf for everyday transportation. It's not like in the US where someone has an F150 to haul a 5,000 pound travel trailer.

I still think Elio needs an arrive and drive program because they could easily get many more people interested if they could drive one. I'd plop down $1K non refundable if I could drive one and if I liked it. I feel that this is something that would go much further than the current method of no driving, no advertising and just hoping that youtube videos from a third party will make up the difference. Even the niche customer is just sitting around and waiting because they really have no clue as to what it would be really like to drive an Elio. I know that here, nobody has ever driven one and thus don't know what it would be like.

 

[Rickb]

I just don't see many people buying an "and" car. Why not an "and" tv, fridge, etc etc....

I think the buyer an elio type car is part of a small market/niche.

In terms of resale value, very few people actually worry about that. They say they worry about it at first, then immediately ignore it. Also, if that was the case, everyone would have an "and" car right now.

We do have “and” cars now, most just happen to be the used up old beater 2nd car, whereas, the new three wheeler class of “ands” will provide for an affordable, new, and reliable second family vehicle choice, the unanswered question is, will they accept a three wheeler commuter option? Proven only when one of the startups starts retail production and making deliveries. Most Elio reservationists were attracted by the anticipated $6800 cheap “and” MSRP, and frankly I think it would have to be closer to $15K if production happens in 2020+ to be profitable.