Is There Any Physical And Substantial Progress Towards Production Of The Elio?

[RUCRAYZE]

IMO, they should be working on the e-series (pre-production cars) now in order to meet production in 2015 at all. Depends on whether they're being hand-built, or using some of the machinery for production cars -- if the latter, they'd better get cracking populating the plant with appropriate machinery. If the former, hand-building cars takes a long, long time -- and if they need 25 or so, I can't imagine how they will get that done without some production-type equipment.

Actually, dropping the engine and tranny into the body shouldn't be that hard to do -- unless you have to remove the body to repair the drive train! That mans there is no need to wait for the engines to be built -- as long as the physical geometry is known, which it is. Does anybody know if the P5, the measurement model (with higher roof line, better exhaust routing, etc) exists, or has even been started? Granted, that's not a vehicle for public use, just for manufacturing measurements, but without it, the pre-production test vehicles are nowhere. Or maybe they have some other way of getting the measurements they need -- which I doubt.

I don't know what Elio is actually doing -- maybe waiting until the ATVM application is ruled upon, maybe waiting for some other money to kick in, but they are, publicly at least, getting pretty far behind the 8-ball to get production started in 2015. That would be OK, except that they have built public expectations for a 2015 date, and have underlined that date so many times that they will lose tremendous credibility if they move production out more than a month or two into 2016. Very bad choice for a start-up to make; they either need to be paving they way for delay by acknowledging whatever the current state of affairs is, or they need to be showing more physical proof-of-progress such as taping the engine running, as suggested above.

Right now, they're like a guy standing on a dock, trying to get into a rowboat that isn't tied off -- you have to jump one way or the other pretty quick, or you're going to get the splits and a dunking!

My personal guess is that they've hit some glitches and are hoping to recover from them quickly enough to make their production deadline ... hence the silence. But they are running out of time, and a long, long silence will cause more pain than acknowledging whatever issues may be delaying things.

BTW, and how it affects moving forward, I'm not sure, but the outside dimensions will remain the same, they are lowering the rear seat to keep the current design (Jerome Jacksonville)

 

[Lil4X]

A couple of good points made here: First, the "production date" depends on what you call "production". Nobody's going to flip a switch and suddenly 250 units start rolling off the line on day one. There's going to be a slow start as the first production units begin assembly - that will hopefully reach some target level by the end of the first thirty days. There will be problems that only appear once the line starts moving, but the fixes to both mechanical problems and supply delays should work themselves out in the first 90 days or so. At that point, full production levels should be pretty predictable.

Second shifts and even second and third assembly lines will again ramp up production over time. Once there are several thousand Elios on the street, we can anticipate a first bump of orders. Of course that will depend on the dealer network, as showrooms across the country will have to have cars available for show and demo. I would think that a lot of the first production run is going to be consumed "filling up the pipeline" to the showrooms - possibly handled on a parallel line. While it's great to get one of the first production units, it might be best to get a good number of these early production units into the hands of dealers for two reasons. One, to spur orders and get the system into high gear faster with cash rolling in, and Two, to sort out any early problems at the dealer level rather than in the hands of customers. All of us want to get our hands on an Elio ASAP, but remember that early birds often get the worm. And not in a good way. It takes a true believer to be a Beta tester.

So, if you're thinking 4Q2015 for "production", you may be looking at late spring of '16 before YOUR Elio rolls off the line at this point. That may be a little disappointing, but at least your new trike will have all the updates and fixes - or will at least benefit by the experience gained on those that went before. Where's the sweet spot in the production numbers? We'll just have to wait and see. There's an old adage in the manufacturing business that you don't want to own serial number ONE of anything.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

EM claimed that they don't need the ATVM loan to start production but will help to bring our ELIO sooner. With that in mind, it's safe to say that they have the necessary funding to start production next year, right? Does it also mean that by them saying it could be "sooner" with the ATVM's additional infusion of funds they can launch much earlier say summer of 2015 as opposed to winter of 2015? Or, does it mean they have the funds to launch but needs the ATVM money to sustain production or another delay is forthcoming? I want to cheer myself up and say they're getting ready to give us a Christmas surprise that the new engine has been successfully tested meeting the 84 mpg and that pre-production units are ready to be crash tested! I'll take that as a X'mas gift from EM!

Government wheels" grind as slow at has been in decades, I wouldn't look for the check in the mail!

 

[RUCRAYZE]

A couple of good points made here: First, the "production date" depends on what you call "production". Nobody's going to flip a switch and suddenly 250 units start rolling off the line on day one. There's going to be a slow start as the first production units begin assembly - that will hopefully reach some target level by the end of the first thirty days. There will be problems that only appear once the line starts moving, but the fixes to both mechanical problems and supply delays should work themselves out in the first 90 days or so. At that point, full production levels should be pretty predictable.

Second shifts and even second and third assembly lines will again ramp up production over time. Once there are several thousand Elios on the street, we can anticipate a first bump of orders. Of course that will depend on the dealer network, as showrooms across the country will have to have cars available for show and demo. I would think that a lot of the first production run is going to be consumed "filling up the pipeline" to the showrooms - possibly handled on a parallel line. While it's great to get one of the first production units, it might be best to get a good number of these early production units into the hands of dealers for two reasons. One, to spur orders and get the system into high gear faster with cash rolling in, and Two, to sort out any early problems at the dealer level rather than in the hands of customers. All of us want to get our hands on an Elio ASAP, but remember that early birds often get the worm. And not in a good way. It takes a true believer to be a Beta tester.

So, if you're thinking 4Q2015 for "production", you may be looking at late spring of '16 before YOUR Elio rolls off the line at this point. That may be a little disappointing, but at least your new trike will have all the updates and fixes - or will at least benefit by the experience gained on those that went before. Where's the sweet spot in the production numbers? We'll just have to wait and see. There's an old adage in the manufacturing business that you don't want to own serial number ONE of anything.

there will be no dealers- that's one of the upsides i.e. Tesla

 

[Ekh]

BTW, and how it affects moving forward, I'm not sure, but the outside dimensions will remain the same, they are lowering the rear seat to keep the current design (Jerome Jacksonville)

That's interesting. The gas tank is under the rear seat -- and the vehicle ground clearance is spec'd at 5.75 inches (and needs all of it, IMO). So where is the space coming from? If they're keeping the gas tank under the seat, and keeping the vehicle ground clearance while retaining the vehicle height, the gas tank has to become skinnier. Wonder how they're doing that?

 

[Ekh]

there will be no dealers- that's one of the upsides i.e. Tesla

Not in Ohio. Per recent legal change, no motor vehicles other than Tesla can be sold outside the 3-tier system. And yes, by Ohio law, the Elio is a motor vehicle. I have asked Elio for comment on this and have received silence in reply.

 

[eddie66]

That's interesting. The gas tank is under the rear seat -- and the vehicle ground clearance is spec'd at 5.75 inches (and needs all of it, IMO). So where is the space coming from? If they're keeping the gas tank under the seat, and keeping the vehicle ground clearance while retaining the vehicle height, the gas tank has to become skinnier. Wonder how they're doing that?

The current P4 has 14" wheels. Elio has stated the production model will have 15" wheels, so they will probably lower the fuel tank to accomodate the seat.

 

[Jeff Porter]

A couple of good points made here: First, the "production date" depends on what you call "production". Nobody's going to flip a switch and suddenly 250 units start rolling off the line on day one. There's going to be a slow start as the first production units begin assembly - that will hopefully reach some target level by the end of the first thirty days. There will be problems that only appear once the line starts moving, but the fixes to both mechanical problems and supply delays should work themselves out in the first 90 days or so. At that point, full production levels should be pretty predictable.

Second shifts and even second and third assembly lines will again ramp up production over time. Once there are several thousand Elios on the street, we can anticipate a first bump of orders. Of course that will depend on the dealer network, as showrooms across the country will have to have cars available for show and demo. I would think that a lot of the first production run is going to be consumed "filling up the pipeline" to the showrooms - possibly handled on a parallel line. While it's great to get one of the first production units, it might be best to get a good number of these early production units into the hands of dealers for two reasons. One, to spur orders and get the system into high gear faster with cash rolling in, and Two, to sort out any early problems at the dealer level rather than in the hands of customers. All of us want to get our hands on an Elio ASAP, but remember that early birds often get the worm. And not in a good way. It takes a true believer to be a Beta tester.

So, if you're thinking 4Q2015 for "production", you may be looking at late spring of '16 before YOUR Elio rolls off the line at this point. That may be a little disappointing, but at least your new trike will have all the updates and fixes - or will at least benefit by the experience gained on those that went before. Where's the sweet spot in the production numbers? We'll just have to wait and see. There's an old adage in the manufacturing business that you don't want to own serial number ONE of anything.

Good thoughts 4X, appreciate it.

You make a point that I hadn't considered yet: at some time, vehicles will have to start flowing to the stores and to the marshaling centers. But, the vehicles can't be sent to these locations until the locations are ready. Goofyone I'm sure will have some info on this, I don't remember seeing any specific info on a plan for when the stores / marshaling centers will be ready. Same for your point of spurring orders and getting the system into high gear: don't want a high demand until the stores / marshaling centers are ready for that high demand. At what point during the first year of production will they be ready? Unknown.

Loved your appointment of the "the early bird gets the worm" being a bad thing. LOL, nice!

Who knows, perhaps work is going on right now, to get software, people, systems, and bldgs in place... so that the stores / marshaling centers could accept vehicles as early as maybe the 2nd month of production. We'll see!

As Elio Motors gets orders from the public (37k and counting), fleet sales, needs for their own sales pipeline, this >>could<< help determine when they shut down reservations for the first year. Let the speculation fuuulllloooowwww....

 

[eddie66]

Good thoughts 4X, appreciate it.

You make a point that I hadn't considered yet: at some time, vehicles will have to start flowing to the stores and to the marshaling centers. But, the vehicles can't be sent to these locations until the locations are ready. Goofyone I'm sure will have some info on this, I don't remember seeing any specific info on a plan for when the stores / marshaling centers will be ready. Same for your point of spurring orders and getting the system into high gear: don't want a high demand until the stores / marshaling centers are ready for that high demand. At what point during the first year of production will they be ready? Unknown.

Loved your appointment of the "the early bird gets the worm" being a bad thing. LOL, nice!

Who knows, perhaps work is going on right now, to get software, people, systems, and bldgs in place... so that the stores / marshaling centers could accept vehicles as early as maybe the 2nd month of production. We'll see!

As Elio Motors gets orders from the public (37k and counting), fleet sales, needs for their own sales pipeline, this >>could<< help determine when they shut down reservations for the first year. Let the speculation fuuulllloooowwww....

Jeff
I think G.O. mentioned that the first marshaling center will be at or near the plant for the early reservists. Not sure if he was stating that from knowledge or opinion, but it did come up in an earlier thread. While it's true, the early bird does catch the worm, it's always the second mouse that gets the cheese.

 

[Smitty901]

Not in Ohio. Per recent legal change, no motor vehicles other than Tesla can be sold outside the 3-tier system. And yes, by Ohio law, the Elio is a motor vehicle. I have asked Elio for comment on this and have received silence in reply.

Regardless of any state law they can not stop me from buying a car in LA and bring it home.