Probability Of Success Of Investment Concerning Timing Of Various Down Payment Options.

[jetpack54]

Finances! Finances! Finances! Not everyone has $1000 to buy in. I am $100 all in but am already saving for the next step up to $500 (Elio doesn't allow the mid step to $250). Once I am at $500 I will start accumulating again to get up to $1000. I feel doing it this way is helping me in two ways. 1. I am in the top 4 categories of reservationist - albeit the 4th level. 2. I am getting used to "making payments" after being totally debt free for 9 years. At 72 and on fixed low income this is a huge step for me but I love this car and I want one. Therefore I am willing to make other sacrifices to get it. My current car is a 1999 Toyota Camry with almost 214,000 miles on it. The Elio will be my only car er autocycle? whatever! Z

We're on the same boat except it's not SINKING just yet! EM is playing their cards right as more and more people are getting caught up on the hype. I'm still giving my 1K all in more than average chance of earning the extra bonus $500. I've got 275,000+ miles on my 1999 Toyota Corolla stick shift and still going strong but it'll become my backup car once I got my Elio.

 

[lafrisbee]

$100 all in is my ante. When I get to see more cards I can push more into the pot. I can understand other people feel and see it different. No one is wrong here. You want to put $1000 all in, you got your reasons.
But even though I have only gotten $100 all in at this time, if my ol buddy Paul wanted a good laugh and allowed anyone that has money all in to pay $4600 total all in, tomorrow, so they would have the basic model completely paid for I would go ahead and do that....and ask him if I could buy another'n at that price.
It is just a matter of being prudent... No financial benefit for me to go all in for more than $100, unless he cuts off the matching money without warning, which I was told wasn't going to happen by a rep at Daytona.

 

[jetpack54]

$100 all in is my ante. When I get to see more cards I can push more into the pot. I can understand other people feel and see it different. No one is wrong here. You want to put $1000 all in, you got your reasons.
But even though I have only gotten $100 all in at this time, if my ol buddy Paul wanted a good laugh and allowed anyone that has money all in to pay $4600 total all in, tomorrow, so they would have the basic model completely paid for I would go ahead and do that....and ask him if I could buy another'n at that price.
It is just a matter of being prudent... No financial benefit for me to go all in for more than $100, unless he cuts off the matching money without warning, which I was told wasn't going to happen by a rep at Daytona.

You're doing what's best for your situation. No sense playing "chicken" right now when there's plenty of waiting to do.

 

[Inigo93]

I see several people with with $100 all-Ins planning to upgrade to $1000 later. I personally see this as the worst of both worlds:

1. I could get the same result with none of the initial risk. I.e. You decide to go $1000 all-in in 6 months. that same day I decide to do the same. I get my car the same time as you, but I didn't take the initial risk you did.

2. Because you 'have skin in the game." it could make you more likely to upgrade if you shouldn't. I.e. the company is still questionable in 6 months, but clearly looking like it will produce. It might be temping to go ahead and upgrade hoping to get a car. (Not everyone thinks this way but many do. I.e. the idea of something going to waste is a very strong psychological effect. The instinct of most people is to try and recover a "sunk cost".

Maybe I wasn't clear in my earlier post, but from my perspective you're missing a 3rd scenario....

3. I intend to wait those 6 months to go all-in, but in the meantime Elio picks up a major business partner and no longer needs the investor relations value of the "all-in deposit program." BAM! He shuts the program down to further enrollments.... And now I'm stuck waiting in line with the general public. At least the $100 in gets me to (say) the halfway point in the advance line for essentially zero risk (I'm not worried about losing $100.).

 

[Craig]

Maybe I wasn't clear in my earlier post, but from my perspective you're missing a 3rd scenario....

3. I intend to wait those 6 months to go all-in, but in the meantime Elio picks up a major business partner and no longer needs the investor relations value of the "all-in deposit program." BAM! He shuts the program down to further enrollments.... And now I'm stuck waiting in line with the general public. At least the $100 in gets me to (say) the halfway point in the advance line for essentially zero risk (I'm not worried about losing $100.).

Look what even tentatively owning an Elio has done to us.
All ready we are above the “General Public”
Who want’s to be inline with the “General Public?”
Let them eat cake.

 

[Charles]

I went in at the $100 level in Oct 2013' advanced to the $500 level in February 2014, and finally to $1000 in March 2014. One of the reasons was the number of new people paying the $1000 level kept moving me farther down the distribution line and I want mine as soon as possible. I seriously doubt that you will get your Elio the same time as those who went all in. It may be shortly after but with the rapidly increasing numbers of all-ins I believe your delivery will be significantly delayed.
I realize everyone's finances are different and there are many factors that impact their priorities. My choice was to "invest" my $1000 in Elio. Like all investments there is no guaranteed return but like any other investment I have confidence in the company.

I'm not saying I would get my Elio anywhere close to when you would since you're already all-in $1000. I was simply pointing out the fact that If chose to go all-in $1000, I can choose to do so at the same time as someone else with none of the risk they incurred up to that point AND get my car the same time. - Although your statement is far from true currently (How long should we expect Elio to take to produce 5000 cars?) But for me personally you may be absolutely right. Being the risk adverse person I am, I may not end up with one at all depending upon how long they are able to produce.

For those thinking the all-in program might end, that's an interesting angle, although I really don't see that happening anytime soon if at all (But everyone is entitled to their own opinion and act accordingly).

For those that are using the various all-in as financing steps, this is an interesting angle. However, I was having trouble coming up with the $1000 I would strongly focus on getting my credit and finances in order. (Have any credit cards that should be paid down?). I don't know how well of an impulse purchase this makes, As I'd be a little worried about getting financing if I didn't have the cash to purchase.

By the way, I'm considering putting up a $100 refundable deposit for the time being. Although I'm not quite ready to put down an All-in deposit (I've made it clear I would go strait for the $1000. - Also my spouse has 0 interest in us owning this auto.) I would still like to do my part in encouraging this company to make it, and I really would like to purchase this car. I.e. the refundable choice isn't because I have any doubts about my choice to purchase. The refundable choice is because I am not yet 99% certain enough they will deliver at all, and I have very little expectation for them to deliver in the scale and quantity they are advertising.

 

[lafrisbee]

I'm not saying I would get my Elio anywhere close to when you would since you're already all-in $1000. I was simply pointing out the fact that If chose to go all-in $1000, I can choose to do so at the same time as someone else with none of the risk they incurred up to that point AND get my car the same time. - Although your statement is far from true currently (How long should we expect Elio to take to produce 5000 cars?) But for me personally you may be absolutely right. Being the risk adverse person I am, I may not end up with one at all depending upon how long they are able to produce.

For those thinking the all-in program might end, that's an interesting angle, although I really don't see that happening anytime soon if at all (But everyone is entitled to their own opinion and act accordingly).

For those that are using the various all-in as financing steps, this is an interesting angle. However, I was having trouble coming up with the $1000 I would strongly focus on getting my credit and finances in order. (Have any credit cards that should be paid down?). I don't know how well of an impulse purchase this makes, As I'd be a little worried about getting financing if I didn't have the cash to purchase.

By the way, I'm considering putting up a $100 refundable deposit for the time being. Although I'm not quite ready to put down an All-in deposit (I've made it clear I would go strait for the $1000. - Also my spouse has 0 interest in us owning this auto.) I would still like to do my part in encouraging this company to make it, and I really would like to purchase this car. I.e. the refundable choice isn't because I have any doubts about my choice to purchase. The refundable choice is because I am not yet 99% certain enough they will deliver at all, and I have very little expectation for them to deliver in the scale and quantity they are advertising.

Nothing you state is wrong. But others can see it differently and not be wrong either. however I do see a slight incorrect logic with some of the reasons to go "all-in" for a grand unless it was to secure a very low number. Or I could be "wrong."
I see no reason to go "all-in" for a grand when you have virtually the same advantage by being all in for $100, except the additional $450 credit towards the purchase. But given I was told(a terrible thing to base your actions on) that those with some money all in would be sent a notice that the "All-in" plan was going to close soon so we could pay the rest at that time. And that lead me to the logical action of getting "all-in" on the $100 level. This gives me the opportunity to go to the $1000 level and get the additional credit in the future without exposing an additional $900 to unforeseen risk in the mean time.

Here again. If Paul opened up some whacky deal whereby you could pay cash for your elio just today, and get an additional %50 credit at the register, I would pony up for TWO of them right now. I am a 9 on a ten scale that the autocycle will be produced. Statistically i'd have to be below a 7 for the gamble to not be a good one from my point of view.

 

[ElioFrank]

Getting back to orginal topic, I watched the Fox Business interview and at the end of the Elio segment, the anchor said something like "congrats on raising 7 million" and Paul Elio said "no, that's $47 million". With that much invested, you gotta think this autocycle will make production? Right?

 

[Charles]

Nothing you state is wrong. But others can see it differently and not be wrong either. however I do see a slight incorrect logic with some of the reasons to go "all-in" for a grand unless it was to secure a very low number. Or I could be "wrong."
I see no reason to go "all-in" for a grand when you have virtually the same advantage by being all in for $100, except the additional $450 credit towards the purchase. But given I was told(a terrible thing to base your actions on) that those with some money all in would be sent a notice that the "All-in" plan was going to close soon so we could pay the rest at that time. And that lead me to the logical action of getting "all-in" on the $100 level. This gives me the opportunity to go to the $1000 level and get the additional credit in the future without exposing an additional $900 to unforeseen risk in the mean time.

Here again. If Paul opened up some whacky deal whereby you could pay cash for your elio just today, and get an additional %50 credit at the register, I would pony up for TWO of them right now. I am a 9 on a ten scale that the autocycle will be produced. Statistically i'd have to be below a 7 for the gamble to not be a good one from my point of view.

I wasn't trying to say the number necessarily had to be extremely low to be worth going all-in 1000. I was saying that there is a good chance that do to my personal nature, There's a good chance I might wait so long that I could never end up with a car even if they do produce. -(I've seen many on here and otherwise speculate that the production might not last long term.)

Pretty much every part of the process is a gamble and everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Other than not wanting to provide the extra $ incentives to additional customers, I logically don't see a reason the company wouldn't want to continue to take paid reservations.

 

[DBN477]

Elio's SEC filings showed $150000 in investments. That was some time ago. I haven't seen any lately. I also wonder about investments. I doubt many (With big bucks) would be interested to invest do to the profit margin of the Elio. Now, if many, many invested the $1000.00 all in he will make it. I believe that to be his goal and that is why the production date gets set back year after year.

I seem to think that was the plan, get enough people to go all in for a $1k and have the first year of production(68K) sold out. The creative way to finance the car, I don't see it happening for many customers. Money attracts money. Just wonder how much they are burning through. How much it cost to secure lease for plant( I have to believe Racer Trust wanted a deposit). Is Mr. Elio getting a salary now (I would guess not), how many people work for EM?