This Is Promising

[Ekh]

Why assume Elio doesn't have the funds to build the 23 E models? I feel that is irresponsible conjecture. Elio started on the E models and then made the decision to use steel body panels. It would take some time to build the dies. How long? I surely don't know but it would take at least some time. Now, could Elio use a couple of E series with SMC panels? Sure. And, they have. However, does it make sense to do fast track building SMC bodied E series if the tests would have to be accomplished when they built using the right body panels? Perhaps this waiting period is merely the time it is taking for the stamps to be done. Once done, it won't take long at all to stamp out 20 or 100 bodies. You COULD see a sudden release of the rest of the E series followed rapidly by the 100. To assume without all the facts that Elio is out of money is misleading.

They said that they could have the E series ars built in three months. That was unrealistic, because (for instance) they needed to have the brakes tuned before any performance / tests could be run. Instant delay!

And yes. it is possible that the other 18 cars might be built in secret, but it's vanishingly improbable. Why? because Elio needs every visible sign of progress they can muster to support and encourage reservations and investors. silence from them regarding the test vehicles is not just unsettling, it's ominous.

The official production date has now slipped from second to fourth quarter 2017. if they had the test program running smoothly they wouldn't have had to do that. Additionally the handling and safety test results would do a lot to make the ATVM loan decision go in a positive way. Elio knows that. So it follows that the only reason that stuff hasn't been done is because they can't afford to get it done right now. I think Elio can survive this but it's going to be more difficult with every day that passes. They need capital.

Other things, like getting the stamps made, might be taking up some of the time. But I'll guarantee you most of the delay is money. Nothing new in this story. it's just bloody unfortunate the timing hasn't worked in the way Paul both thought it would and hoped it would.

The next real milestone with public impact is the E1-C. And that's one, I am sure, will happen on schedule. It may shake things loose, and I certainly hope it does.

I heard this Summer that Elio could in fact get this job done without the atvm loan, but that that loan was much better solution financially because it didn't dilute the stock. I don't think that's changed, but the delays in getting the test vehicles built and tested argue that the atvm loan really is critical, not just to start the plant up but to springboard other Investments. It's a cleft stick, and I hope Paul figures a way out of it soon.

On the positive side, having suppliers committing to build plants in the Shreveport facility is a really good piece of news. It indicates they are not giving up on Elio, and if they're not we shouldn't either.

 

[Ty]

They said that they could have the E series ars built in three months. That was unrealistic, because (for instance) they needed to have the brakes tuned before any performance / tests could be run. Instant delay!

And yes. it is possible that the other 18 cars might be built in secret, but it's vanishingly improbable. Why? because Elio needs every visible sign of progress they can muster to support and encourage reservations and investors. silence from them regarding the test vehicles is not just unsettling, it's ominous.

The official production date has now slipped from second to fourth quarter 2017. if they had the test program running smoothly they wouldn't have had to do that. Additionally the handling and safety test results would do a lot to make the ATVM loan decision go in a positive way. Elio knows that. So it follows that the only reason that stuff hasn't been done is because they can't afford to get it done right now. I think Elio can survive this but it's going to be more difficult with every day that passes. They need capital.

Other things, like getting the stamps made, might be taking up some of the time. But I'll guarantee you most of the delay is money. Nothing new in this story. it's just bloody unfortunate the timing hasn't worked in the way Paul both thought it would and hoped it would.

The next real milestone with public impact is the E1-C. And that's one, I am sure, will happen on schedule. It may shake things loose, and I certainly hope it does.

I heard this Summer that Elio could in fact get this job done without the atvm loan, but that that loan was much better solution financially because it didn't dilute the stock. I don't think that's changed, but the delays in getting the test vehicles built and tested argue that the atvm loan really is critical, not just to start the plant up but to springboard other Investments. It's a cleft stick, and I hope Paul figures a way out of it soon.

On the positive side, having suppliers committing to build plants in the Shreveport facility is a really good piece of news. It indicates they are not giving up on Elio, and if they're not we shouldn't either.

I didn't say they were doing anything in secret. I said they are waiting on body panels to be stamped out. They can't do much testing without the bodies. So, they are NOT waiting on funding. They are waiting on bodies. This is just a probable as saying they are out of money... and more likely.
When the body panels are done, they'll finish putting together the rest of the E series and may even be ready to move the next 100 panels to Shreveport so they can "start production" of the 100 there. Again... without body panels, a lot of tests can't be done... or scheduled. With lead times at testing facilities, it could very well be that the delay is being caused directly by Elio's decision to switch to metal body panels. Time will tell.

(The above can be assumed to be every bit as correct as saying they don't have money)

 

[Watashiwah]

I watched that video, and a new aspect hit me, what the answer is I haven't figured out yet.
So Caddo Parrish has this big empty plant; Racers Trust comes along and promises to develop it into something, or the other option is to tear it down.
Let's set EM and the rest of the building to the side for a moment.
So what does Caddo get if they tear it down? They don't really need the space, there is a lot of open space around the plant that other businesses could be developing, but their not.
So why are they putting the pressure on Elio? Well in the video, they open with saying "Elio is just a pawn in this situation".

Why do they want to put this much pressure on a pawn in a series of promises that they made to Elio's Landlord?
It's not like Elio being there is keeping other manufacturers out; they already admitted that the other deals they had all fell through.
So they chase EM out, and then what? Tear down a building that no one else wants? What did they have planned for that spot?

Like I started out, I have no answers for these questions at this point, but what is Caddo Parrish not telling us?

Coss, I was first going to send you a PM regarding your question of 'why?' The answer which I have come to is somewhat delicate and opens itself to a myriad of non PC discussion. After some thought I just decided to publically post it. You be the judge: this is what I personally believe is what is going on behind that recent Caddo Hearing:

By many accounts the Caddo Commission has had much more than it's share of corruption and back door dealings. Rather recently a black commission member was sentenced to do jail time while other white commissioners escaped prosecution. There is some compelling intrigue surrounding family members of one the unprosecuted as working in the local law enforcement department. This is all readily searchable.

The view I had of that recent meeting, there was another State Rep in attendance, seated at the far right. I personally was amazed at her lack of understanding and failure to grasp the issues: her questioning seemed intended to be inflammatory and seemed to fuel Rep. Glover's ire and unprofessional conduct. They both have a history of politicking within Caddo Parish and I believe have axes to grind that may fall along racial lines. Interestingly that woman State Rep, who was only briefly introduced, was Barbara Norton. You may remember her from the national news earlier this year as proclaiming the "Declaration of Independence" as being 'racial.'

It is my observation that out of all the parties and people testifying that Paul Elio simply was the easiest and most stationary target. In theory EM is ironically the only entity that was ostensibly going to be physically in Caddo. It is not uncommon, nowadays, to bite the hand the is potentially going to feed you to make a point, or to grind your axe iin a well publicized arena. That is the crux of 'why.'

That meeting wasn't about solving anything, I believe it was just about political payback over internal Caddo Parish problems that particularly infect Louisiana recently.

 

[Ty]

I think the one guy who got up said it the best. "This has ceased being a question and has become badgering."

 

[Ekh]

I didn't say they were doing anything in secret. I said they are waiting on body panels to be stamped out. They can't do much testing without the bodies. So, they are NOT waiting on funding. They are waiting on bodies. This is just a probable as saying they are out of money... and more likely.
When the body panels are done, they'll finish putting together the rest of the E series and may even be ready to move the next 100 panels to Shreveport so they can "start production" of the 100 there. Again... without body panels, a lot of tests can't be done... or scheduled. With lead times at testing facilities, it could very well be that the delay is being caused directly by Elio's decision to switch to metal body panels. Time will tell.

(The above can be assumed to be every bit as correct as saying they don't have money)

I hope you're right.

 

[RMClubfitter]

Joel Sheltrown has a really good summary of the behind the scenes goings on at that meeting on the facebook page if you are on facebook. It's long

 

[Coss]

Coss, I was first going to send you a PM regarding your question of 'why?' The answer which I have come to is somewhat delicate and opens itself to a myriad of non PC discussion. After some thought I just decided to publically post it. You be the judge: this is what I personally believe is what is going on behind that recent Caddo Hearing:

By many accounts the Caddo Commission has had much more than it's share of corruption and back door dealings. Rather recently a black commission member was sentenced to do jail time while other white commissioners escaped prosecution. There is some compelling intrigue surrounding family members of one the unprosecuted as working in the local law enforcement department. This is all readily searchable.

The view I had of that recent meeting, there was another State Rep in attendance, seated at the far right. I personally was amazed at her lack of understanding and failure to grasp the issues: her questioning seemed intended to be inflammatory and seemed to fuel Rep. Glover's ire and unprofessional conduct. They both have a history of politicking within Caddo Parish and I believe have axes to grind that may fall along racial lines. Interestingly that woman State Rep, who was only briefly introduced, was Barbara Norton. You may remember her from the national news earlier this year as proclaiming the "Declaration of Independence" as being 'racial.'

It is my observation that out of all the parties and people testifying that Paul Elio simply was the easiest and most stationary target. In theory EM is ironically the only entity that was ostensibly going to be physically in Caddo. It is not uncommon, nowadays, to bite the hand the is potentially going to feed you to make a point, or to grind your axe iin a well publicized arena. That is the crux of 'why.'

That meeting wasn't about solving anything, I believe it was just about political payback over internal Caddo Parish problems that particularly infect Louisiana recently.

Actually I believe you have a very valid point, and quite clearly stated.

 

[Coss]

Joel Sheltrown has a really good summary of the behind the scenes goings on at that meeting on the facebook page if you are on facebook. It's long

A lot of members don't do FB (including me); can you copy and paste that article here please?

 

[Jambe]

I hope re-posting is considered acceptable...

JOEL SHELTRON OCT 28 2016 as posted on Facebook

I seldom post things here but I watch occasionally...it is always best (for numerous considerations) that I don't post. However, I thought it best that I give my take on the recent reporting being done by a couple of TV stations, and politics in general. As I write this, I am thinking it may be a fairly long post, but I think it would be good to read all. The post is my opinion, but based on years of actual political experience of knowing how and why politicians do certain things.

First, resolutions. Elio Motors asked the committee members to sign an NDA . They wouldn't because it would "violate the open meetings act" However, we have to have an NDA because we would violate SEC regulations without it. If we had a closed committee meeting and NDA's were signed, we could have answered all their questions in detail...but that wouldn't have provided the political bang that was sought by having the meeting in Shreveport and inviting all the press and TV coverage.

Rep Glover introduced his resolution regarding the plant and why the jobs at that facility aren't there ... yet. So, let's look at the importance of a resolution(again, my opinion, but based on experience). Without any supportive legislation, resolutions most generally are political. They are designed to give the impression that you(as a representative or senator) are really doing something...really are a mover and shaker.. on top of things. They are introduced in every state by politicians by the 100's of thousands every year, and generally are not covered by the press. The reason they aren't is because they are political in nature, and without meaningful legislation to support, they are basically(in my opinion) useless. Think of them as New Year's resolutions that we often make.. you know, drop 30lbs, etc. That's about how useful they are in actuality . I have introduced them as well when I was a Rep in MI..most all I introduced were for political reasons. I think back as to my career in Lansing, probably only 1 of 23 or so that were passed really meant anything, and that is because supportive legislation accompanied the one resolution.

Secondly, the resolution was introduced by Rep Glover because he said he wanted to know exactly what was going on at the Shreveport facility. He didn't contact the company, (the most logical contact would have been me) to see what was happening, what progress is being made..and why there were delays. That wouldn't have given him any TV coverage..just asking the company directly. I certainly would have responded to him quickly and directly, and answered the questions he had within the scope of SEC limitations. So, he introduced the resolution and asked for a committee hearing.

Which brings me to the third point. Politicians sometimes try to have committee hearings away from the capitol and out in their districts so they can perform before their constituents. It is a smart thing to do for any politician who wants to stroke his image before his constituents. This hearing certainly could have been more productive if it had taken its natural course of being held in Baton Rouge. But that wouldn't have given as much political bang as having the hearing right back smack in the middle of Rep Glover's district. That's what politicians do.. they look for opportunities to show people how great they are doing. Rep Glover has been a successful politician for many years, having served as mayor of Shreveport until term limits forced him to leave and run for State Rep.. So, the committee hearing in Shreveport would be a politically smart thing to do, and I don't criticize Rep Glover for doing the smart political thing.. after all, he is a politician. But it obvious to me, and most all that attended, that information wasn't being sought... political points were being sought...evident by all the interruptions that occurred while Racer, IRG, LED and Elio were trying to answer questions.

Fourth point. Paul Elio and I spend a great deal of time and funds to fly in to answer questions regarding the plant and update the legislature. It was something that took away valuable time, especially from Paul, and would not do anything to speed Elio faster towards production. At any rate, the hearing was supposed to be informational..to hear directly from RACER Trust, IRG, LED and the CEO of Elio Motors. However, mostly all the discussion was completely dominated by Rep Glover who badgered RACER Trust representative to the point that RACER's attorney had to interrupt and ask the chairman to intervene. Rep Glover attacked IRG's representative as well...constantly interrupting his attempts to answer questions. Paul was able to get through most of his update until Rep Glover started with questions.. which were far more about his opinions than questions. He was extremely rude to Paul, constantly interrupting his attempts to answer the questions (which by the way was the supposedly purpose of the committee hearing) Having served as a chairman of a House of Rep committee in Lansing for 4 years, it is something I definitely would not have put up with as a chairman. It was so bad that I yelled out "Let him speak!" as did others as well. After all that was supposed to be the purpose of the hearing. We all, both sides of the issue, wanted to hear Paul answer to questions. I don't think it would be out of line or inaccurate to say that most of the talking..probably at least 60% or higher, was all Rep Glover. Only a few other questions were asked by other committee members. Apparently, they didn't have any other questions, and probably all yielded the balance of their time to Rep Glover.

No more than 10,000 characters allowed--continued below.

 

[Jambe]

Fifth, but some things we did learn. One, that Paul agreed to step aside when another company contacted LED with their desire to acquire the plant. An approximate 4 month option was granted, which Paul agreed to. That gave the company time to decide whether they wanted to move from Houston to Shreveport. Paul Elio, LED, Racer Trust, IRG or anyone else stopped the company from moving into Shreveport. Contrary, Paul Elio, at considerable damage to his company, agreed to step aside. That is a fact, even though Rep Glover seemed to think that wasn't the case. I khope he understands now. The company decided it wasn't in their best interest. The company didn't say they didn't have enough time to make the decision(like Rep Glover suggested might be the case), They said it didn't make economic sense to them. They could have easily asked for an extension (and I'm sure LED would have granted) but they didn't. So, the final paperwork was completed and all parties finalized the agreements. Elio Motors will be manufacturing in Shreveport. Period. IRG will be own and manage the facility.

Sixth. Someone on the committee (could have been Rep Glover) suggested that the state should have come up with 5 million and Caddo Parish the rest, to buy back the facility.. and I assume manage it themselves. The facility costs IRG 200,000 per month to manage..insurance, utilities, maintenance, etc. If the LA decided to do that, the cost would probably balloon to 500,000 per month since IRG are experts in running these operations, not the government. And, other than Elio, no one else has viable interest in the plant.

Seventh. We know for certain that Elio Motors is the ONLY company that has committed to manufacture in Shreveport..until recently..when an Elio's seat supplier committed to investing and building seats for the Elio there, in direct support of Elio. None of the previous "enquiries" followed through and most didn't even both to call back and say why.

Eighth. I don't have inside knowledge to comment on the "take Elio or leave it" suggestion that a few politicians claim was said. I never was present when they claimed this happened. I base my opinion in my conversations with RACER, that RACER Trust didn't have ANYONE else viable who was interested in the plant. Racer has seen many plants, especially MI scrapped for lack of interest. They didn't want that to happen to Shreveport. That's a fact. It's a fact that Racer Trust contacted LED to tell them about Elio and helped arrange a meeting with LED about Elio acquiring the plant. Fact is Racer Trust has done everything to try to move that plant into production(and Elio only has a 1/3rd of the plant. 2/3rds still available) but I assume there would be a limit as to how long Racer can manage a facility (costing 200K per month) before the decision to scrap has to be been made. That's part of the reason for the sale to IRG. IRG has purchased, successfully contracted with new tenants, job producers in at least 3 other Racer Trust properties. Shreveport is darned awful lucky to have IRG managing that facility. We only have to look at headlines of Ford moving to Mexico.. manufacturers manufacturing in China etc.. to see the difficulty in finding tenants for any facility, including Shreveport. We only have to look at Michigan to see the destruction of plants because of lack of demand..and continuous deterioration of these facilities.

In regards to the supposed threat of scrapping, we had one Caddo Commissioner (Mathew Linn)testify that he voted for the agreements because he wanted the jobs..but he did so under duress.. he "wanted to see the contract" but "they wouldn't let me see it" "I wanted the jobs so I voted yes" Well, I have heard a lot of explanations about voting records over my time, but that was a good one. Commissioner, you should have voted no if you didn't know what the contract was. If you felt you needed more information, and they wouldn't provide it to your satisfaction, you could have abstained and given the reason why. That's how you handle voting. Let your Yea be Yea, your Nay be Nay, and if you want to weasel a little, just abstain. Nobody would have faulted you for that.

In summary(finally) At one time, I was Shreveport's worst enemy. I wanted our manufacturing to be in Michigan. Michigan lost 315,000 manufacturing jobs in 8 years. I was with Paul at the Pontiac meeting. They loved Elio.. everything about it until we asked them to invest 5 million from their pension funds. (Yes it was 5 million, not 200 million which Rep Glover mentioned.) Instead, Pontiac plant was sold to a scrapper. Willow run was toured as well. No equipment in the plant ..the equipment was sold or scrapped..just basically a warehouse. Wixom..that huge plant ..destroyed. I think they left enough of the facility for a Menard's warehouse.