How Long Do I Have To Wait After Production Begins?

[goofyone]

Silas Sunday produced this great production estimate graph and posted it today to EMOA on Facebook. This pretty much matches what we have been told by Elio Motors in their blog and also what Paul Elio described in the Town Hall meeting while extrapolating a proper ramping up of production instead of just producing hundreds of Elios per shift on day one.

The blue line is line/shift 1, orange is line/shifts 1 & 2, green is both lines/shifts 1 & 2 @ 100%

...Here's some instructions on how to read the graph:

The numbers at the top are the running total of cars produced. The numbers at the bottom are number of days after start of production. So if you look at the bottom at say 80 days, you can look up and see 15,600 cars made after 80 days. Then to the left, are the number of cars produced per day. In the 80 day example, you look at the graph, follow it over to the left, and they hope to be making about 475 cars per day after 80 work days.

For those of you who may not have seen this information and would like a little more explanation on where the graph numbers came from:

In this blog post, dated April 11, EM stated that those who made an all-in reservation on that day would have to wait about 5-7 weeks after production begins to receive their new vehicle.

Q. I have an All In reservation for ($100, $500, $1000 etc.), when can I get my Elio?

• The reservation system is set up to allow for vehicles to be delivered in the following order: $1,000 All In, $500 All In, $250 All In, $100 All In then on to the $1000 Want In, $500 Want In, $250 Want In and finally the $100 Want In group. The date and time your transaction was completed locks in your spot, which includes moving up to a higher level with and upgrade of your All In reservation. It is difficult to forecast when a certain level will get their Elio. The only one that we can “guesstimate” right now is the $1000 All in group because they know their spot in line. If you were to make a $1000 All In reservation today we are estimating that you would receive a vehicle 5-7 weeks after production starts next year.
  http://blog.eliomotors.com/readers-choice-friday/

We happen to have a member, Zarquon, who made his All In $1K reservation on April 11 and his number is 3686 so this gives us some good insight into how slowly EM expects production to ramp up.

Also in the recent town hall meeting Paul Elio told us that in order to build 250,000 vehicles a year there will be two shifts working five days a week producing 500 vehicles per shift. So this is 1,000 vehicles per day over 250 work days per year which is what you would expect when you deduct holidays from the work calendar. These numbers also equal the 250,000 per year production number which we have been told about repeatedly.

We also happen to have a member, Ty, who is an Industrial Engineer who worked at the GM Shreveport plant, and he tells us that GM ran their stations timed so that each station took no longer than 54 seconds. If you run the numbers you will find that if Elio Motors also used that same station timing they could produced 500 vehicles in only 7.5 hours. This tells us that 500 vehicles per shift is not an unrealistic production number at all especially considering that each and every vehicle will be identical other than paint color and choice of transmission.[/QUOTE]

 

[goofyone]

For those of you who may not have seen this information and would like a little more explanation on where the graph numbers came from:

In this blog post, dated April 11, EM stated that those who made an all-in reservation on that day would have to wait about 5-7 weeks after production begins to receive their new vehicle.

We happen to have a member, Zarquon, who made his All In $1K reservation on April 11 and his number is 3686 so this gives us some good insight into how slowly EM expects production to ramp up.

Also in the recent town hall meeting Paul Elio told us that in order to build 250,000 vehicles a year there will be two shifts working five days a week producing 500 vehicles per shift. So this is 1,000 vehicles per day over 250 work days per year which is what you would expect when you deduct holidays from the work calendar. These numbers also equal the 250,000 per year production number which we have been told about repeatedly.

We also happen to have a member, Ty, who is an Industrial Engineer who worked at the GM Shreveport plant, and he tells us that GM ran their stations timed so that each station took no longer than 54 seconds. If you run the numbers you will find that if Elio Motors also used that same station timing they could produced 500 vehicles in only 7.5 hours. This tells us that 500 vehicles per shift is not an unrealistic production number at all especially considering that each and every vehicle will be identical other than paint color and choice of transmission.

Having said all that Elio Motors does always have the option of running the plant at half capacity by only having a single shift until they see enough demand to bring the second shift online. It is always possible that they choose to do this during the production period for reservation holders as lets say they limit the first model years production to 60K using the graph they estimate they can ramp up and still produce 60K vehicles in under five months. The largest estimate for the first model years production I have heard semi-officially is 68K. This would only take an additional 16 days and would be possible in just over five months.

Even if it takes 120 days instead of 90 to ramp the production line up to the full speed of 500 vehicles per shift, and EM only runs one shift, 68K is still doable in just over six months.

 

[karl]

I admire the faith of some of you here, Lines like "it looked good on paper..." come to mind first. We should remember that of right now there is nothing happening yet at the production site and there is still lots of work to get done to get to that point. "speed costs money" All niter's getting things ready in my own garage are "free", getting things done on a tight schedule can get expensive. "counting your chickens before they hatch" even after they hatch they can still be problematic. I recall a clutch of chicks my mom bought to boost the productivity of her flock that turned out to be more than half roosters.

It is hard to just sit back and wait.

 

[Jeff Porter]

I admire the faith of some of you here, Lines like "it looked good on paper..." come to mind first. We should remember that of right now there is nothing happening yet at the production site and there is still lots of work to get done to get to that point. "speed costs money" All niter's getting things ready in my own garage are "free", getting things done on a tight schedule can get expensive. "counting your chickens before they hatch" even after they hatch they can still be problematic. I recall a clutch of chicks my mom bought to boost the productivity of her flock that turned out to be more than half roosters.

It is hard to just sit back and wait.

I hear ya Karl, understood. While it is hard to sit back and wait, it is interesting to me to watch the process and see what happens. It's a risk to give $$ for something that is not a guarantee. That said, I'm enjoying myself!

 

[Smitty901]

This vehicle makes sense. The biggest draw back right now is the lack of public knowledge. I have not spoken to one person yet who has even heard of it yet. I am an up-paid advertising agent for Elio.

Because I ride a motorcycle a lot many I know do also. I have introduced many to the ELIO. Sad to say most look and turn away feeling it is a scam. We shall see when I drive in in.

 

[BillZ]

It takes as long as it takes. The waiting can be painful but the product promises to be fantastic. I remain hopeful...

 

[RevTriker]

Greetings All. Just found out that my $1000 "All In" reservation has put me just a few hundred spots shy of the 10,000 production mark, which is much better than I anticipated as I only saw the Elio live and reserved on the last day of the 50% promotion. I should have a realistic chance to take ownership of a new Elio sometime in late 2015 (if they can stay on their intended production track). I have never driven a motorcycle before (a mini-bike when I was a teenager doesn't really count) and look forward to driving this new cycle/car combo.
Kevin

 

[Yogi Leigh]

 

[robert109]

I am driving a three wheeled all electric car called the Gizmo for the last 11 years and I have been the advertising rep just by driving the car. They are no longer sold, but the Elio will get massive amounts of advertising once customers are actually driving the car.

 

[zelio]

Chris has actually been a moderator here longer than I have. He has just been very busy lately so has not been around as much as he used to be.

I was wondering what Music Man was talking about. I will vouch for Chris having been gone. I'm glad to see he is back because I missed him. :-) Z