Em Danger Period

[Eliodude]

I've enjoyed following this thread, certainly lots of food for thought!

But, given Elio's precarious financial situation, and lack of a specification verified prototype, Elio's future production volume seems impossible to predict.

Elio is currently a small marketing company, and has yet to prove they can make the transition to a high volume vehicle manufacturer.

Their next 10-Q balance sheet in October will provide the clues to properly evaluate the ongoing "Elio Saga".

I'm worried Elio has set their production bar too high, hopefully they will revise their volume estimate's down to a more conservative level.

 

[slinches]

Eliodude, I strongly disagree with your opinion on the direction EM should pursue on production volume. Demand will not be an issue for a $7300 commuter car that gets close to 84mpg. It's too good of a value to not sell in huge numbers. There were something close to 50,000 reservations with the brand awareness at only 6% of the US. If marketing can reach 1/2 of the US and you assume that only half of the general population will be interested compared to the early reservation crowd, that's still indicating immediate demand for over 250,000 vehicles.

I think they should scale up as quickly as possible to the max production capacity for the Shreveport plant. That way they can take full advantage of economies of scale to increase profits and keep the price low. The only way I see Elio failing due to lack of demand is if the price has to increase due to low production volumes causing the value relative to existing small commuter cars to become less obvious.

 

[TCBronson]

Who really knows for sure but in my opinion, after Elio builds and starts delivering vehicles to the reservation holders the word and publicity will spread extremely fast and the stock will take off! That will create a whole new set of folks wanting in on the latest transportation craze! Once sales and demand level off I think Elio will expand their market like Paul said, their intent is "World Domination" ! As other markets discover this new transportation option, sales will take off again and Elio Motors may be in the envious position to need to expand production to meet world demand! In the mean time EM stock could go up to the point where it splits! About this time Elio Motors will most likely reveal their next generation or additional model, like a hybrid, electric or Turbo version! Then it will be time for us all to trade in and get the performance version!

 

[Coss]

I've enjoyed following this thread, certainly lots of food for thought!
But, given Elio's precarious financial situation, and lack of a specification verified prototype, Elio's future production volume seems impossible to predict.
Elio is currently a small marketing company, and has yet to prove they can make the transition to a high volume vehicle manufacturer.
Their next 10-Q balance sheet in October will provide the clues to properly evaluate the ongoing "Elio Saga".
I'm worried Elio has set their production bar too high, hopefully they will revise their volume estimate's down to a more conservative level.

I have a simple question:
You bring up SEC filing repeatedly; you've made assessments of what it all means; or think it means.
What do you do for a living? And where does your knowledge of Stocks, Bonds and Filings come from?
Not a loaded question, I'd simply like to know where you training comes from; that's all.

 

[Eliodude]

I have a simple question:
You bring up SEC filing repeatedly; you've made assessments of what it all means; or think it means.
What do you do for a living? And where does your knowledge of Stocks, Bonds and Filings come from?
Not a loaded question, I'd simply like to know where you training comes from; that's all.

Fair question.

I'm a long term entrepreneur, sold my business after 20 years, and took early retirement 8 years ago.

I've served on the board of several companies, and hold series 63, series 65, and series 7 financial certification's.

Additionally, before my retirement, I had long standing ties to the retail automobile industry.

I admire innovative and ground breaking design's of personal transportation, from Italian exotic's to Smart Cars.

If the Elio ever reaches production, it will replace my current Smart Car for intercity commuting.

 

[Marshall]

I think the most dangerous time for EM will be shortly after they start production. The reservations will buy all the vehicles made for a while. After these are filled, the plant will be producing 1,000 vehicles per day and relying on store orders to buy the vehicles being made, at least those are the plans. Demand for cars is not constant and varies with time. Will public demand for the Elio start out slow and have to grow or will it be immediately at 1,000 per day?

Will the store orders buy 1,000 vehicles per day? I think the vehicle is absolutely great, but that does not mean other people will see it that way. The vehicles we reservationists drive on the road will be great advertisement. The media will talk about these unusual vehicles on the road which will also be great advertisement. But will that be enough.

When demand decreases, the assembly line can be slowed down. That drives up the price per vehicle but the large auto manufacturers have large cash reserves to weather these things out. EM will be a young company at this point and not have large cash reserves.

What do these companies do when demand is less than production and the dealer lots are full? There will be no dealer lots to act as buffers, though there will be the lots of the marshaling centers to act as buffers. If a shift is shut down, the manufacturing cost per vehicle goes up and important workers may be permanently lost when they do want to restart the shift.

Perhaps Ty has seen these things.

Oh Ty, where art thou?

I have no doubt that Elio will sell out until more assembly lines are brought in. 1 Million vehicles a year is a very conservative estimate of demand representing only 5% of total sales for a car with no real competition at the price point.

 

[Marshall]

LOL... I use the same minimum wage/gallon of gas idea when I explain inflation! It isn't a perfect explanation but it helps kids understand better. However, I remember, in the mid 80's when there was a gas station that gave away gas in Atlanta. They were having some kind of price war and the price was ridiculously low. It didn't last long, of course. But, that would really skew the old data... even back when Minimum wage was $3.65... That's a lot of gas even at the then $0.65 that you'd see.

I remember the outrageous price when Gas hit 49 cents a gallon for something that had been only 20 cents a gallon fairly recently. The they had another shortage and the price hit $1.10 and everyone was apoplectic. That was the time I got a 4 year old Buick LaSabre with a 455 - 4Barrel carb for a song.

 

[pistonboy]

Fair question.

I'm a long term entrepreneur, sold my business after 20 years, and took early retirement 8 years ago.

I've served on the board of several companies, and hold series 63, series 65, and series 7 financial certification's.

Additionally, before my retirement, I had long standing ties to the retail automobile industry.

I admire innovative and ground breaking design's of personal transportation, from Italian exotic's to Smart Cars.

If the Elio ever reaches production, it will replace my current Smart Car for intercity commuting.

Entrepreneurship is creating, starting, and running a new business.

The series 63,65, and 7 certifications are tests for trading and advising on the trading of securities.

These are two completely different things.

 

[Ekh]

Who really knows for sure but in my opinion, after Elio builds and starts delivering vehicles to the reservation holders the word and publicity will spread extremely fast and the stock will take off! That will create a whole new set of folks wanting in on the latest transportation craze! Once sales and demand level off I think Elio will expand their market like Paul said, their intent is "World Domination" ! As other markets discover this new transportation option, sales will take off again and Elio Motors may be in the envious position to need to expand production to meet world demand! In the mean time EM stock could go up to the point where it splits! About this time Elio Motors will most likely reveal their next generation or additional model, like a hybrid, electric or Turbo version! Then it will be time for us all to trade in and get the performance version!

You're a dreamer, but I like it!

 

[Eliodude]

Entrepreneurship is creating, starting, and running a new business.

The series 63,65, and 7 certifications are tests for trading and advising on the trading of securities.

These are two completely different things.

Incorrect.

You do not have to be within the financial industry to obtain the certifications, they are wonderful business tools for those who wish to understand public companies.

The analogy is obtaining a law degree without ever having the intent to practice law.

A lifelong pursuit of knowledge is always a wonderful thing!