Reservations: 65341 As Of 6/20/2017

Jambe said:

Number of current reservations: 55,021 as of Jun 27, 2016 - 54,826 = 195/7 = 27.9/day.

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I went back to the beginning of this thread; and copied this from March, 2014
"As of Feb. 3, there were 9006 reservations, As of Feb. 19 (16 day period), there were 10046"

My goodness, how far we've come in a little over 2 years; a difference of 46,015 in 2 years 3 months.

It is always going up which is a good thing. I think IMO if there was even more news coverage and more people knew about the Elio the number of reservations would sky rocket. I am surprised every day with the amount of folks who have still never heard any thing about the Elio. I wish they would really be more coverage about this amazing Autocycle. Commercials are far and few between, and that is the sad part.

Coss said:

I went back to the beginning of this thread; and copied this from March, 2014
"As of Feb. 3, there were 9006 reservations, As of Feb. 19 (16 day period), there were 10046"

My goodness, how far we've come in a little over 2 years; a difference of 46,015 in 2 years 3 months.

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46,015 / 875 days = 52.59/day average since the creation of this thread.

Dates I looked up
January 2013, Elio started taking reservations
October 3, 2013 There was 3,300 reservations and I got mine in #1,685
December 27, 2013 There was 6,342 reservations !
February 19, 2014 There was 10,047 reservations
August 27, 2014 There was 30,268 reservations
November 30, 2015 There was 47,770 reservations
February 12, 2016 They over 50,000 reservations
Today They have 55,021 reservations
WE GOT YOUR BACK ELIO !!!!

Sailor Dog said:

Brand recognition for Elio Motors is currently only 6.5 percent per a study they conducted, by extrapolating from this one could expect well over 500,000 reservations based on 100 percent brand recognition even accounting for less acceptance among the 93.5 percent! Brand recognition for Tesla is practically 100 percent. Brand recognition for Elio Motors throughout the rest of the world...close to zero percent!

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\

Cool! but... How does one calculate that? If I consider 6.5% as knowing about the Elio which gives 55k reservations, that says at 100% ( 55k / .065 = ) gives 847k possible reservations at market saturation. And that maybe doesn't even take in the oddity that many people stayed out because they wanted production to start first. Very encouraging.

Of course maybe at 55k, we are now at a higher saturation than 6.5%, so the 500k does sound realistic.

AriLea said:

\

Cool! but... How does one calculate that? If I consider 6.5% as knowing about the Elio which gives 55k reservations, that says at 100% ( 55k / .065 = ) gives 847k possible reservations at market saturation. And that maybe doesn't even take in the oddity that many people stayed out because they wanted production to start first. Very encouraging.

Of course maybe at 55k, we are now at a higher saturation than 6.5%, so the 500k does sound realistic.

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It all depends on how you think the early adopters compare to the general population. If the sort of people who have already reserved are the people who are actively seeking something like the Elio, then that would skew the data one way. However, since it is generally accepted that the early adopters--for the most part--are not the target demographic, that might skew the data the other way.

I think saying "500,000" is being very conservative and counting on the early adopters as showing higher-than-representative interest. If, however, it goes the other way, then 850,000 might be too low a number! We'll just have to see. It wouldn't surprise me if, once we hit production, the next couple years soon get sold out.

Sethodine said:

It all depends on how you think the early adopters compare to the general population. If the sort of people who have already reserved are the people who are actively seeking something like the Elio, then that would skew the data one way. However, since it is generally accepted that the early adopters--for the most part--are not the target demographic, that might skew the data the other way.

I think saying "500,000" is being very conservative and counting on the early adopters as showing higher-than-representative interest. If, however, it goes the other way, then 850,000 might be too low a number! We'll just have to see. It wouldn't surprise me if, once we hit production, the next couple years soon get sold out.

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One can only hope

I believe that once it's rolling off the assembly line, there will be a flood of people going "I want mine NOW!" that aren't reservation holders.

The really early list people (like the first 2,000) will be receiving multiple offers at better than list price once they see them on the street.

I haven't seen anyone post a chart in a while, so I decided to make one myself. This contains every data point I could find from here, and some additional very early data points from another forum. I set the start data as Jan 3, 2013, which I believe is when the first reservations were taken.

It's available as an interactive Google Chart that let's you hover over data points to get the exact data. Here's the URL:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...quX8/pubchart?oid=46872278&format=interactive

The raw data in spreadsheet form is available via Google Docs, here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bkuP5jzC-YowDucrdNfTVSOGdapq4zdICtaSeLSquX8/edit?usp=sharing


While researching this data, I ran across some quotes that are really funny, in hindsight:

August 28th, 2014, just as the rapid upswing was hitting it's peak before leveling out:
http://elioowners.com/threads/reservations-55-021-as-of-jun-27-2016.539/page-66#post-40424
"By the end of Dec. 2014, we should be at or near 59,248 reservations."


This is from a few days later. Apparently there was a theory that there was a finite number of reservations available.
http://elioowners.com/threads/reservations-55-021-as-of-jun-27-2016.539/page-69#post-41021
"...at this rate I'm betting the reservations will be gone before Christmas."